Settled model recap · 2026-10-12

MLB Pitcher Prop Picks Recap for October 12, 2026: 0-1, -1.00 units

Review 1 pitcher-prop Pick from October 12, 2026 with the exact saved sportsbook prices, model probabilities, lineup or player values, final results, and plain-English postgame review.

Published after the saved Picks settled. The original prices and inputs stay attached.

Record0-1-0

Net units-1.00u

Game Picks0

Player Props1

One-minute recap

The card missed: 1 pitcher-prop Pick finished 0-1 for -1.00 units. The useful question is which assumptions failed, not how to explain the result after the fact.

Saved Picks and reviews

Open any Pick for the why

MLB Player Props

1 pitcher-prop Pick, covering strikeouts and reviewed from the saved workload, opponent, and price snapshots.

Pitcher prop

Foster Griffin Over 3.5 strikeouts

CLE at TB · 3 strikeouts · over 3.5

DraftKings -102lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: Foster Griffin Over 3.5 Ks

Foster Griffin finished with 3 strikeouts, leaving the saved over 3.5 on the wrong side of the line for a 1.00-unit loss.

At DraftKings -102, the model gave the over 56.7% against a 50.5% break-even mark, a +6.2-point gap. The saved projection was 4.9 strikeouts across 23.2 batters faced. The pitcher graded 54.1/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 43.4; the confirmed lineup carried a 20.5% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 1.9 strikeouts below the point projection. The projection supported the ticket, but the actual result crossed to the other side of the sportsbook line. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability56.7%

Price break-even50.5%

Calculated difference+6.2 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Foster Griffin vs. TB

Projected Ks: 4.9
Actual Ks: 3

Pitcher value54.1

Opponent K matchup43.4

Lineup K rate20.5%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced23.3

Evidence quality92%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.38 Ks. Robustness: 79%.

Foster Griffin: What had to hold

Strikeout count: the saved expectation was 2.54378 to 7.30177 strikeouts. The pregame model centered on 4.9 strikeouts, with uncertainty around that estimate. The case becomes weaker if: the actual count falls outside the saved descriptive range; this alone does not diagnose the cause.

This range was frozen before the game as a descriptive check, not a calibrated confidence interval.

Foster Griffin: What actually happened

The saved decision settled as a loss, with -1.00 units on 1 units of reference risk.

Strikeout count finished at 3 strikeouts, inside the saved 2.54378 to 7.30177 range.

Foster Griffin: What enters model review

These are checks of the original assumptions, not proof of what caused the result. A win does not validate every assumption, and a loss does not invalidate every forecast.

The measured observations can enter a source-verified review dataset. This recap changes no model weights; any proposed change requires separate chronological and prospective evaluation.

What comes next

What we take forward

Each result can raise a useful question, but no single game rewrites the model. Any adjustment has to repeat across comparable frozen reads and survive a prospective test first.

Technical receipt

Fact pack: 79b54be971ea55e54adc23e3dee07f4e80617c95637d13e8b70c75b4f1db85bd

Decision receipts: mlb-k-prop-eb2e1b4028a1b69386afa318

Settlement receipts: 4e5d4c3bc7e53719f54cbc4828513f8216a08ce9da8ddec7c733bcd5b3d0ad1d