Settled model recap · 2026-10-11

MLB Pitcher Prop Picks Recap for October 11, 2026: 1-0, +0.88 units

Review 1 pitcher-prop Pick from October 11, 2026 with the exact saved sportsbook prices, model probabilities, lineup or player values, final results, and plain-English postgame review.

Published after the saved Picks settled. The original prices and inputs stay attached.

Record1-0-0

Net units+0.88u

Game Picks0

Player Props1

One-minute recap

A strong result on the scoreboard: 1 pitcher-prop Pick finished 1-0 for +0.88 units. The review below separates the reads that matched their projections from the outcomes where the saved price did more of the work.

Saved Picks and reviews

Open any Pick for the why

MLB Player Props

1 pitcher-prop Pick, covering strikeouts and reviewed from the saved workload, opponent, and price snapshots.

Pitcher prop

Jacob Misiorowski Under 7.5 strikeouts

LAD at MIL · 5 strikeouts · under 7.5

DraftKings -113winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: Jacob Misiorowski Under 7.5 Ks

Jacob Misiorowski finished with 5 strikeouts, cashing the saved under 7.5 and adding +0.88 units to the prop record.

At DraftKings -113, the model gave the under 59.9% against a 53.1% break-even mark, a +6.8-point gap. The saved projection was 6.0 strikeouts across 22.1 batters faced. The pitcher graded 64.2/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 73.2; the confirmed lineup carried a 20.7% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 1.0 strikeouts below the point projection. The ticket and the point projection told the same story. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability59.9%

Price break-even53.1%

Calculated difference+6.8 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Jacob Misiorowski vs. LAD

Projected Ks: 6.0
Actual Ks: 5

Pitcher value64.2

Opponent K matchup73.2

Lineup K rate20.7%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced22.1

Evidence quality92%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.66 Ks. Robustness: 79%.

Jacob Misiorowski: What had to hold

Strikeout count: the saved expectation was 3.34269 to 8.65942 strikeouts. The pregame model centered on 6.0 strikeouts, with uncertainty around that estimate. The case becomes weaker if: the actual count falls outside the saved descriptive range; this alone does not diagnose the cause.

This range was frozen before the game as a descriptive check, not a calibrated confidence interval.

Jacob Misiorowski: What actually happened

The saved decision settled as a win, with +0.88 units on 1 units of reference risk.

Strikeout count finished at 5 strikeouts, inside the saved 3.34269 to 8.65942 range.

Jacob Misiorowski: What enters model review

These are checks of the original assumptions, not proof of what caused the result. A win does not validate every assumption, and a loss does not invalidate every forecast.

The measured observations can enter a source-verified review dataset. This recap changes no model weights; any proposed change requires separate chronological and prospective evaluation.

What comes next

What we take forward

Each result can raise a useful question, but no single game rewrites the model. Any adjustment has to repeat across comparable frozen reads and survive a prospective test first.

Technical receipt

Fact pack: 4c3532ecd7d19bd638b95060542e3691c17b844dad61b17b22cb374efe952eb6

Decision receipts: mlb-k-prop-12d03e893359b0d55b680bb8

Settlement receipts: d82d8d8da0cdd2f132019571524834ea8ddacbf40ff4fc9adf3035766cc7cea8