Settled model recap · 2026-09-30

MLB Pitcher Prop Picks Recap for September 30, 2026: 0-1, -1.00 units

Review 1 pitcher-prop Pick from September 30, 2026 with the exact saved sportsbook prices, model probabilities, lineup or player values, final results, and plain-English postgame review.

Published after the saved Picks settled. The original prices and inputs stay attached.

Record0-1-0

Net units-1.00u

Game Picks0

Player Props1

One-minute recap

The card missed: 1 pitcher-prop Pick finished 0-1 for -1.00 units. The useful question is which assumptions failed, not how to explain the result after the fact.

Decision coverage note

Decision coverage was incomplete in the additional pitcher props lane (2 opportunities expired without a decision). This recap is complete for the 1 settled Pick that were actually recorded, but the slate does not meet full-lifecycle acceptance. No missing decision was reconstructed, and these incidents do not count as Picks or change the record above.

Saved Picks and reviews

Open any Pick for the why

MLB Player Props

1 pitcher-prop Pick, covering strikeouts and reviewed from the saved workload, opponent, and price snapshots.

Pitcher prop

Kevin Gausman Over 4.5 strikeouts

CHC at SD · 1 strikeouts · over 4.5

FanDuel +116lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: Kevin Gausman Over 4.5 Ks

Kevin Gausman finished with 1 strikeouts, leaving the saved over 4.5 on the wrong side of the line for a 1.00-unit loss.

At FanDuel +116, the model gave the over 49.1% against a 46.3% break-even mark, a +2.8-point gap. The saved projection was 5.3 strikeouts across 23.5 batters faced. The pitcher graded 51.4/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 50.7; the confirmed lineup carried a 21.4% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 4.3 strikeouts below the point projection. The projection supported the ticket, but the actual result crossed to the other side of the sportsbook line. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability49.1%

Price break-even46.3%

Calculated difference+2.8 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Kevin Gausman vs. SD

Projected Ks: 5.3
Actual Ks: 1

Pitcher value51.4

Opponent K matchup50.7

Lineup K rate21.4%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced23.5

Evidence quality92%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.48 Ks. Robustness: 80%.

Kevin Gausman: What had to hold

Strikeout count: the saved expectation was 2.83119 to 7.80082 strikeouts. The pregame model centered on 5.3 strikeouts, with uncertainty around that estimate. The case becomes weaker if: the actual count falls outside the saved descriptive range; this alone does not diagnose the cause.

This range was frozen before the game as a descriptive check, not a calibrated confidence interval.

Kevin Gausman: What actually happened

The saved decision settled as a loss, with -1.00 units on 1 units of reference risk.

Strikeout count finished at 1 strikeouts, outside the saved 2.83119 to 7.80082 range.

Kevin Gausman: What enters model review

These are checks of the original assumptions, not proof of what caused the result. A win does not validate every assumption, and a loss does not invalidate every forecast.

The measured observations can enter a source-verified review dataset. This recap changes no model weights; any proposed change requires separate chronological and prospective evaluation.

What comes next

What we take forward

Each result can raise a useful question, but no single game rewrites the model. Any adjustment has to repeat across comparable frozen reads and survive a prospective test first.

Technical receipt

Fact pack: bde926f07908fb011dcdd600e52819ca2260f0cc749db562c36d6d596fb59d83

Decision receipts: mlb-k-prop-317196f18a58b7686a84b906

Settlement receipts: fa742095dcd1d50c81303426de67b4b9857053255f828fab95c8bbd55c46ebb5