Settled model recap · 2026-08-15

MLB Game & Prop Picks Recap for August 15, 2026: 3-1, +2.36 units

Review 2 game Picks and 2 pitcher-prop Picks from August 15, 2026 with the exact saved sportsbook prices, model probabilities, lineup or player values, final results, and plain-English postgame review.

Published after the saved Picks settled. The original prices and inputs stay attached.

Record3-1-0

Net units+2.36u

Game Picks2

Player Props2

One-minute recap

A strong result on the scoreboard: 2 game Picks and 2 pitcher-prop Picks finished 3-1 for +2.36 units. The review below separates the reads that matched their projections from the outcomes where the saved price did more of the work.

Saved Picks and reviews

Open any Pick for the why

MLB Game Picks

2 game Picks, reviewed from the saved lineup, player, team, and moneyline snapshot.

Game Pick

MIN moneyline

PHI at MIN · PHI 9, MIN 1

DraftKings +123lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: MIN +123

MIN did not get there in a PHI 9, MIN 1 final. The saved DraftKings +123 price cost 1.00 unit on the game-pick record.

The pregame case started with DraftKings MIN +123. We made the side 45.1%; the price needed 44.8%. That left 0.3 percentage points of room over the price's break-even mark. The strongest public counterweight was Long-run team strength, which pulled 0.28 probability points away from MIN. PHI carried the higher starter rating: Connor Prielipp rated 51.5, compared with Jesus Luzardo at 58.8. The two confirmed lineups graded about even: MIN 50.8, PHI 51.4. The top displayed hitters were Ryan Jeffers (54.0) and Bryce Harper (55.0). The bullpen snapshot was essentially even: MIN 52.3, PHI 53.6.

The price case was there; the result was not. We will compare this starter, lineup, and bullpen profile with future frozen reads before deciding whether the miss was noise or a repeatable blind spot.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability45.1%

Price break-even44.8%

Calculated difference+0.3 pts

Selected side

MIN

Team form48.6

Lineup form50.8

Starting pitcher51.5

Bullpen available52.3

Opponent

PHI

Team form52.8

Lineup form51.4

Starting pitcher58.8

Bullpen available53.6

Values use the saved 0–100 rolling scale. They are inputs to the selection screen, not direct probability-point weights.

Game Pick

ARI moneyline

ARI at ATL · ARI 10, ATL 3

DraftKings +123winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: ARI +123

ARI got the result in a ARI 10, ATL 3 final. The DraftKings +123 ticket added +1.23 units to the game-pick record.

The pregame case started with DraftKings ARI +123. We made the side 45.0%; the price needed 44.8%. That left 0.2 percentage points of room over the price's break-even mark. The strongest public push toward ARI was Elo home-win baseline, worth 0.12 probability points in the saved calculation. ARI carried the higher starter rating: Eduardo Rodriguez rated 51.8, compared with Grant Holmes at 45.2. The two confirmed lineups graded about even: ARI 50.4, ATL 51.1. The top displayed hitters were Gabriel Moreno (55.3) and Matt Olson (57.4). The bullpen snapshot was essentially even: ARI 54.0, ATL 52.6.

The result matched both the side and the saved price read. That is encouraging, not conclusive; the same profile still has to repeat before any live weight changes.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability45.0%

Price break-even44.8%

Calculated difference+0.2 pts

Selected side

ARI

Team form52.7

Lineup form50.4

Starting pitcher51.8

Bullpen available54.0

Opponent

ATL

Team form53.2

Lineup form51.1

Starting pitcher45.2

Bullpen available52.6

Values use the saved 0–100 rolling scale. They are inputs to the selection screen, not direct probability-point weights.

MLB Player Props

2 pitcher strikeout Picks, reviewed from the saved opponent lineup, workload projection, and prop price.

Pitcher prop

Michael McGreevy Over 3.5 strikeouts

STL at CHC · 6 strikeouts · over 3.5

DraftKings +111winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: Michael McGreevy Over 3.5 Ks

Michael McGreevy finished with 6 strikeouts, cashing the saved over 3.5 and adding +1.11 units to the prop record.

At DraftKings +111, the model gave the over 63.4% against a 47.4% break-even mark, a +16.0-point gap. The saved projection was 4.6 strikeouts across 22.9 batters faced. The pitcher graded 49.4/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 37.4; the confirmed lineup carried a 22.6% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 1.4 strikeouts above the point projection. The ticket and the point projection told the same story. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability63.4%

Price break-even47.4%

Calculated difference+16.0 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Michael McGreevy vs. CHC

Projected Ks: 4.6
Actual Ks: 6

Pitcher value49.4

Opponent K matchup37.4

Lineup K rate22.6%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced22.9

Evidence quality91%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.29 Ks. Robustness: 77%.

Pitcher prop

Jacob Misiorowski Under 8.5 strikeouts

MIL at LAD · 6 strikeouts · under 8.5

DraftKings +102winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: Jacob Misiorowski Under 8.5 Ks

Jacob Misiorowski finished with 6 strikeouts, cashing the saved under 8.5 and adding +1.02 units to the prop record.

At DraftKings +102, the model gave the under 77.8% against a 49.5% break-even mark, a +28.3-point gap. The saved projection was 6.3 strikeouts across 22.5 batters faced. The pitcher graded 64.0/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 77.9; the confirmed lineup carried a 21.2% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 0.3 strikeouts below the point projection. The ticket and the point projection told the same story. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability77.8%

Price break-even49.5%

Calculated difference+28.3 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Jacob Misiorowski vs. LAD

Projected Ks: 6.3
Actual Ks: 6

Pitcher value64.0

Opponent K matchup77.9

Lineup K rate21.2%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced22.5

Evidence quality90%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.74 Ks. Robustness: 77%.

What comes next

What we take forward

Each result can raise a useful question, but no single game rewrites the model. Any adjustment has to repeat across comparable frozen reads and survive a prospective test first.

Technical receipt

Fact pack: a3fdbde4cd39ea5042cad81244af76b569b6a186f2339d607de4ab53642aa69a

Decision receipts: mlb-current-decision:14cae11f250aa3a36cc3b7ac9baefba6, mlb-current-decision:1f5354d4c3b7d9bd10e682fe32bc06ec, mlb-k-prop-06dd4e8efe17133b79bcd64e, mlb-k-prop-c4409eba9030200451517e09

Settlement receipts: mlb_live_settlement_8695cff62fd3299dabba1edf, mlb_live_settlement_be36fc8e0d6accb3db535a77, c234e3d52ed0f67fd93955caaa65fa295a1645fc8b28e022548b9742b0240c0a, 7c5e4f7bfb9a6ffe9769e3043b8a2797af04e961d42cc1e44d4b9e0cd1cd0b0b