Settled model recap · 2026-08-16

MLB Pitcher Prop Picks Recap for August 16, 2026: 2-1, +0.69 units

Review 3 pitcher-prop Picks from August 16, 2026 with the exact saved sportsbook prices, model probabilities, lineup or player values, final results, and plain-English postgame review.

Published after the saved Picks settled. The original prices and inputs stay attached.

Record2-1-0

Net units+0.69u

Game Picks0

Player Props3

One-minute recap

A strong result on the scoreboard: 3 pitcher-prop Picks finished 2-1 for +0.69 units. The review below separates the reads that matched their projections from the outcomes where the saved price did more of the work.

Saved Picks and reviews

Open any Pick for the why

MLB Player Props

3 pitcher strikeout Picks, reviewed from the saved opponent lineup, workload projection, and prop price.

Pitcher prop

Freddy Peralta Under 6.5 strikeouts

BAL at TB · 2 strikeouts · under 6.5

DraftKings -145winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: Freddy Peralta Under 6.5 Ks

Freddy Peralta finished with 2 strikeouts, cashing the saved under 6.5 and adding +0.69 units to the prop record.

At DraftKings -145, the model gave the under 67.2% against a 59.2% break-even mark, a +8.0-point gap. The saved projection was 5.4 strikeouts across 22.9 batters faced. The pitcher graded 44.8/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 55.7; the confirmed lineup carried a 25.4% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 3.4 strikeouts below the point projection. The ticket and the point projection told the same story. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability67.2%

Price break-even59.2%

Calculated difference+8.0 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Freddy Peralta vs. BAL

Projected Ks: 5.4
Actual Ks: 2

Pitcher value44.8

Opponent K matchup55.7

Lineup K rate25.4%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced22.9

Evidence quality90%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.51 Ks. Robustness: 77%.

Pitcher prop

Dylan Cease Under 8.5 strikeouts

NYY at TOR · 10 strikeouts · under 8.5

DraftKings -101lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: Dylan Cease Under 8.5 Ks

Dylan Cease finished with 10 strikeouts, leaving the saved under 8.5 on the wrong side of the line for a 1.00-unit loss.

At DraftKings -101, the model gave the under 73.8% against a 50.2% break-even mark, a +23.6-point gap. The saved projection was 6.7 strikeouts across 23.9 batters faced. The pitcher graded 62.2/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 76.8; the confirmed lineup carried a 23.8% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 3.3 strikeouts above the point projection. The projection supported the ticket, but the actual result crossed to the other side of the sportsbook line. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability73.8%

Price break-even50.2%

Calculated difference+23.6 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Dylan Cease vs. NYY

Projected Ks: 6.7
Actual Ks: 10

Pitcher value62.2

Opponent K matchup76.8

Lineup K rate23.8%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced23.9

Evidence quality90%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.83 Ks. Robustness: 77%.

Pitcher prop

Eury Perez Under 6.5 strikeouts

MIA at CIN · 5 strikeouts · under 6.5

BetMGM +100winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: Eury Perez Under 6.5 Ks

Eury Perez finished with 5 strikeouts, cashing the saved under 6.5 and adding +1.00 units to the prop record.

At BetMGM +100, the model gave the under 62.5% against a 50.0% break-even mark, a +12.5-point gap. The saved projection was 5.7 strikeouts across 22.7 batters faced. The pitcher graded 55.2/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 64.3; the confirmed lineup carried a 25.1% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 0.7 strikeouts below the point projection. The ticket and the point projection told the same story. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability62.5%

Price break-even50.0%

Calculated difference+12.5 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Eury Perez vs. CIN

Projected Ks: 5.7
Actual Ks: 5

Pitcher value55.2

Opponent K matchup64.3

Lineup K rate25.1%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced22.7

Evidence quality89%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.60 Ks. Robustness: 76%.

What comes next

What we take forward

Each result can raise a useful question, but no single game rewrites the model. Any adjustment has to repeat across comparable frozen reads and survive a prospective test first.

Technical receipt

Fact pack: cfd97552f8cb9a2a82693d5cdfbf42f93972f1fbf9a4c2f6b56d09b90623cd3f

Decision receipts: mlb-k-prop-0021c5fddc2b7233a9c8bfb7, mlb-k-prop-292404df19a34f0b6fddda5a, mlb-k-prop-a211a916c6652cdb69708cfe

Settlement receipts: c7c39ecf21fbfd16a5c228fc8c640ce7bbe45ae00ec8807317a940f0f6f7e40a, 0fb96520266b885f9b13d00a424fda9c02c99ab6f61b49ce1347e2b80e02b905, b2d632a4e03f8540f905930f4c30133d60203c7cc5aad9ab8a80ce203bf2c599