Settled model recap · 2026-08-14

MLB Game & Prop Picks Recap for August 14, 2026: 1-5, -4.32 units

Review 3 game Picks and 3 pitcher-prop Picks from August 14, 2026 with the exact saved sportsbook prices, model probabilities, lineup or player values, final results, and plain-English postgame review.

Published after the saved Picks settled. The original prices and inputs stay attached.

Record1-5-0

Net units-4.32u

Game Picks3

Player Props3

One-minute recap

The card missed: 3 game Picks and 3 pitcher-prop Picks finished 1-5 for -4.32 units. The useful question is which assumptions failed, not how to explain the result after the fact.

Saved Picks and reviews

Open any Pick for the why

MLB Game Picks

3 game Picks, reviewed from the saved lineup, player, team, and moneyline snapshot.

Game Pick

STL moneyline

STL at CHC · STL 0, CHC 3

Williamhill Us +175lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: STL +175

STL did not get there in a STL 0, CHC 3 final. The saved Williamhill Us +175 price cost 1.00 unit on the game-pick record.

The pregame case started with Williamhill Us STL +175. We made the side 36.6%; the price needed 36.4%. That left 0.3 percentage points of room over the price's break-even mark. The strongest public counterweight was Long-run team strength, which pulled 0.92 probability points away from STL. CHC carried the higher starter rating: Matthew Liberatore rated 49.5, compared with Clay Holmes at 53.5. CHC had the higher confirmed-lineup rating: STL 49.1, CHC 53.2. The top displayed hitters were Alec Burleson (55.5) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (61.7). CHC had the higher bullpen rating: STL 47.6, CHC 53.3.

The price case was there; the result was not. We will compare this starter, lineup, and bullpen profile with future frozen reads before deciding whether the miss was noise or a repeatable blind spot.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability36.6%

Price break-even36.4%

Calculated difference+0.3 pts

Selected side

STL

Team form47.2

Lineup form49.1

Starting pitcher49.5

Bullpen available47.6

Opponent

CHC

Team form57.3

Lineup form53.2

Starting pitcher53.5

Bullpen available53.3

Values use the saved 0–100 rolling scale. They are inputs to the selection screen, not direct probability-point weights.

Game Pick

TB moneyline

BAL at TB · BAL 6, TB 5

DraftKings -145lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: TB -145

TB did not get there in a BAL 6, TB 5 final. The saved DraftKings -145 price cost 1.00 unit on the game-pick record.

The pregame case started with DraftKings TB -145. We made the side 59.3%; the price needed 59.2%. That left 0.1 percentage points of room over the price's break-even mark. The strongest public counterweight was Elo home-win baseline, which pulled 0.25 probability points away from TB. The starting-pitcher values were nearly even: Steven Matz rated 45.9, compared with Chris Bassitt at 46.2. The two confirmed lineups graded about even: TB 50.9, BAL 49.1. The top displayed hitters were Junior Caminero (58.9) and Pete Alonso (54.5). The bullpen snapshot was essentially even: TB 51.7, BAL 50.3.

The price case was there; the result was not. We will compare this starter, lineup, and bullpen profile with future frozen reads before deciding whether the miss was noise or a repeatable blind spot.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability59.3%

Price break-even59.2%

Calculated difference+0.1 pts

Selected side

TB

Team form52.3

Lineup form50.9

Starting pitcher45.9

Bullpen available51.7

Opponent

BAL

Team form49.0

Lineup form49.1

Starting pitcher46.2

Bullpen available50.3

Values use the saved 0–100 rolling scale. They are inputs to the selection screen, not direct probability-point weights.

Game Pick

MIL moneyline

MIL at LAD · MIL 1, LAD 3

Williamhill Us +165lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: MIL +165

MIL did not get there in a MIL 1, LAD 3 final. The saved Williamhill Us +165 price cost 1.00 unit on the game-pick record.

The pregame case started with Williamhill Us MIL +165. We made the side 38.7%; the price needed 37.7%. That left 1.0 percentage points of room over the price's break-even mark. The strongest public push toward MIL was Long-run team strength, worth 0.23 probability points in the saved calculation. LAD carried the higher starter rating: Robert Gasser rated 50.0, compared with Yoshinobu Yamamoto at 54.8. The two confirmed lineups graded about even: MIL 51.3, LAD 50.6. The top displayed hitters were Jake Bauers (57.9) and Shohei Ohtani (56.9). MIL had the higher bullpen rating: MIL 53.4, LAD 50.4.

The price case was there; the result was not. We will compare this starter, lineup, and bullpen profile with future frozen reads before deciding whether the miss was noise or a repeatable blind spot.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability38.7%

Price break-even37.7%

Calculated difference+1.0 pts

Selected side

MIL

Team form52.8

Lineup form51.3

Starting pitcher50.0

Bullpen available53.4

Opponent

LAD

Team form49.2

Lineup form50.6

Starting pitcher54.8

Bullpen available50.4

Values use the saved 0–100 rolling scale. They are inputs to the selection screen, not direct probability-point weights.

MLB Player Props

3 pitcher strikeout Picks, reviewed from the saved opponent lineup, workload projection, and prop price.

Pitcher prop

Chase Burns Under 6.5 strikeouts

MIA at CIN · 8 strikeouts · under 6.5

BetMGM -115lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: Chase Burns Under 6.5 Ks

Chase Burns finished with 8 strikeouts, leaving the saved under 6.5 on the wrong side of the line for a 1.00-unit loss.

At BetMGM -115, the model gave the under 66.9% against a 53.5% break-even mark, a +13.4-point gap. The saved projection was 5.4 strikeouts across 23.0 batters faced. The pitcher graded 56.1/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 55.9; the confirmed lineup carried a 21.0% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 2.6 strikeouts above the point projection. The projection supported the ticket, but the actual result crossed to the other side of the sportsbook line. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability66.9%

Price break-even53.5%

Calculated difference+13.4 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Chase Burns vs. MIA

Projected Ks: 5.4
Actual Ks: 8

Pitcher value56.1

Opponent K matchup55.9

Lineup K rate21.0%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced23.0

Evidence quality90%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.52 Ks. Robustness: 77%.

Pitcher prop

Gavin Williams Under 7.5 strikeouts

SD at CLE · 5 strikeouts · under 7.5

DraftKings -148winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: Gavin Williams Under 7.5 Ks

Gavin Williams finished with 5 strikeouts, cashing the saved under 7.5 and adding +0.68 units to the prop record.

At DraftKings -148, the model gave the under 71.6% against a 59.7% break-even mark, a +11.9-point gap. The saved projection was 6.0 strikeouts across 23.9 batters faced. The pitcher graded 57.9/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 62.4; the confirmed lineup carried a 20.9% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 1.0 strikeouts below the point projection. The ticket and the point projection told the same story. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability71.6%

Price break-even59.7%

Calculated difference+11.9 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Gavin Williams vs. SD

Projected Ks: 6.0
Actual Ks: 5

Pitcher value57.9

Opponent K matchup62.4

Lineup K rate20.9%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced23.9

Evidence quality91%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.66 Ks. Robustness: 78%.

Pitcher prop

Chris Sale Under 6.5 strikeouts

ARI at ATL · 9 strikeouts · under 6.5

BetMGM -105lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: Chris Sale Under 6.5 Ks

Chris Sale finished with 9 strikeouts, leaving the saved under 6.5 on the wrong side of the line for a 1.00-unit loss.

At BetMGM -105, the model gave the under 67.9% against a 51.2% break-even mark, a +16.7-point gap. The saved projection was 5.4 strikeouts across 23.3 batters faced. The pitcher graded 64.1/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 52.9; the confirmed lineup carried a 18.5% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 3.6 strikeouts above the point projection. The projection supported the ticket, but the actual result crossed to the other side of the sportsbook line. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability67.9%

Price break-even51.2%

Calculated difference+16.7 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Chris Sale vs. ARI

Projected Ks: 5.4
Actual Ks: 9

Pitcher value64.1

Opponent K matchup52.9

Lineup K rate18.5%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced23.3

Evidence quality90%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.50 Ks. Robustness: 76%.

What comes next

What we take forward

Each result can raise a useful question, but no single game rewrites the model. Any adjustment has to repeat across comparable frozen reads and survive a prospective test first.

Technical receipt

Fact pack: ed33ad456adebaa45f9506fd6913703f5c79a2b070f7d4d7413deea0f9a9de7a

Decision receipts: mlb-current-decision:2adb5e009a6f2baf3015e11b079bc3b7, mlb-current-decision:90b66c128e75fad3ca0e1e5ea009279a, mlb-current-decision:e3fd9ec5475d66b643d939b6e79de06e, mlb-k-prop-1c60eb7ad3365b8fe7f9df24, mlb-k-prop-6148ee73987ae4bde8f25589, mlb-k-prop-d8a71d7ba605edc04606c4b9

Settlement receipts: mlb_live_settlement_cefca87009927a3629227ca9, mlb_live_settlement_370d0b58da44eb4b1b75e624, mlb_live_settlement_9b6a0e00a399a1a34d84c526, bdebaa0f1fd3bf8e644a18c2fad747296aa22b4648a7d56fb1ba4daf8a151ba7, 865ff1d238178622c3ed7b0bb3304eccbc038c61ee28c536e817434b6deea18d, 94fbbc76b90d44e42bfdf0ac40c8af9a3d0ca493c30c68d9d98ca2e3dd1bd7cc