Settled model recap · 2026-08-13

MLB Game & Prop Picks Recap for August 13, 2026: 3-3, +0.78 units

Review 3 game Picks and 3 pitcher-prop Picks from August 13, 2026 with the exact saved sportsbook prices, model probabilities, lineup or player values, final results, and plain-English postgame review.

Published after the saved Picks settled. The original prices and inputs stay attached.

Record3-3-0

Net units+0.78u

Game Picks3

Player Props3

One-minute recap

The card finished 3-3 for +0.78 units. The result was mixed, so the individual price and projection reads matter more than the headline record.

Saved Picks and reviews

Open any Pick for the why

MLB Game Picks

3 game Picks, reviewed from the saved lineup, player, team, and moneyline snapshot.

Game Pick

NYY moneyline

SEA at NYY · SEA 1, NYY 0

BetRivers -143lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: NYY -143

NYY did not get there in a SEA 1, NYY 0 final. The saved BetRivers -143 price cost 1.00 unit on the game-pick record.

The pregame case started with BetRivers NYY -143. We made the side 60.0%; the price needed 58.8%. That left 1.1 percentage points of room over the price's break-even mark. The strongest public push toward NYY was Long-run team strength, worth 0.58 probability points in the saved calculation. NYY carried the higher starter rating: Max Fried rated 60.6, compared with Logan Gilbert at 56.5. The two confirmed lineups graded about even: NYY 51.2, SEA 49.7. The top displayed hitters were Luis Garcia Jr. (59.4) and Randy Arozarena (55.7). NYY had the higher bullpen rating: NYY 50.8, SEA 48.1.

The price case was there; the result was not. We will compare this starter, lineup, and bullpen profile with future frozen reads before deciding whether the miss was noise or a repeatable blind spot.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability60.0%

Price break-even58.8%

Calculated difference+1.1 pts

Selected side

NYY

Team form50.2

Lineup form51.2

Starting pitcher60.6

Bullpen available50.8

Opponent

SEA

Team form46.5

Lineup form49.7

Starting pitcher56.5

Bullpen available48.1

Values use the saved 0–100 rolling scale. They are inputs to the selection screen, not direct probability-point weights.

Game Pick

LAA moneyline

TEX at LAA · TEX 0, LAA 7

FanDuel +136winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: LAA +136

LAA got the result in a TEX 0, LAA 7 final. The FanDuel +136 ticket added +1.36 units to the game-pick record.

The pregame case started with FanDuel LAA +136. We made the side 42.7%; the price needed 42.4%. That left 0.3 percentage points of room over the price's break-even mark. The strongest public counterweight was Long-run team strength, which pulled 0.75 probability points away from LAA. TEX carried the higher starter rating: Walbert Urena rated 53.5, compared with Jacob deGrom at 56.8. The two confirmed lineups graded about even: LAA 50.0, TEX 50.9. The top displayed hitters were Wade Meckler (53.5) and Joc Pederson (56.5). The bullpen snapshot was essentially even: LAA 51.8, TEX 50.5.

The result matched both the side and the saved price read. That is encouraging, not conclusive; the same profile still has to repeat before any live weight changes.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability42.7%

Price break-even42.4%

Calculated difference+0.3 pts

Selected side

LAA

Team form44.2

Lineup form50.0

Starting pitcher53.5

Bullpen available51.8

Opponent

TEX

Team form46.5

Lineup form50.9

Starting pitcher56.8

Bullpen available50.5

Values use the saved 0–100 rolling scale. They are inputs to the selection screen, not direct probability-point weights.

Game Pick

MIL moneyline

MIL at LAD · MIL 5, LAD 4

FanDuel +132winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: MIL +132

MIL got the result in a MIL 5, LAD 4 final. The FanDuel +132 ticket added +1.32 units to the game-pick record.

The pregame case started with FanDuel MIL +132. We made the side 43.3%; the price needed 43.1%. That left 0.2 percentage points of room over the price's break-even mark. The strongest public push toward MIL was Long-run team strength, worth 0.24 probability points in the saved calculation. MIL carried the higher starter rating: Shane Drohan rated 55.9, compared with Roki Sasaki at 46.5. The two confirmed lineups graded about even: MIL 51.5, LAD 51.8. The top displayed hitters were Jake Bauers (57.9) and Freddie Freeman (58.5). MIL had the higher bullpen rating: MIL 55.2, LAD 50.4.

The result matched both the side and the saved price read. That is encouraging, not conclusive; the same profile still has to repeat before any live weight changes.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability43.3%

Price break-even43.1%

Calculated difference+0.2 pts

Selected side

MIL

Team form52.8

Lineup form51.5

Starting pitcher55.9

Bullpen available55.2

Opponent

LAD

Team form49.2

Lineup form51.8

Starting pitcher46.5

Bullpen available50.4

Values use the saved 0–100 rolling scale. They are inputs to the selection screen, not direct probability-point weights.

MLB Player Props

3 pitcher strikeout Picks, reviewed from the saved opponent lineup, workload projection, and prop price.

Pitcher prop

Keider Montero Over 2.5 strikeouts

CLE at DET · 0 strikeouts · over 2.5

DraftKings -170lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: Keider Montero Over 2.5 Ks

Keider Montero finished with 0 strikeouts, leaving the saved over 2.5 on the wrong side of the line for a 1.00-unit loss.

At DraftKings -170, the model gave the over 80.4% against a 63.0% break-even mark, a +17.4-point gap. The saved projection was 4.7 strikeouts across 25.0 batters faced. The pitcher graded 50.9/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 30.5; the confirmed lineup carried a 18.3% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 4.7 strikeouts below the point projection. The projection supported the ticket, but the actual result crossed to the other side of the sportsbook line. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability80.4%

Price break-even63.0%

Calculated difference+17.4 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Keider Montero vs. CLE

Projected Ks: 4.7
Actual Ks

Pitcher value50.9

Opponent K matchup30.5

Lineup K rate18.3%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced25.0

Evidence quality90%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.31 Ks. Robustness: 76%.

Pitcher prop

Logan Gilbert Under 6.5 strikeouts

SEA at NYY · 7 strikeouts · under 6.5

Bovada +115lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: Logan Gilbert Under 6.5 Ks

Logan Gilbert finished with 7 strikeouts, leaving the saved under 6.5 on the wrong side of the line for a 1.00-unit loss.

At Bovada +115, the model gave the under 60.4% against a 46.5% break-even mark, a +13.9-point gap. The saved projection was 5.9 strikeouts across 23.8 batters faced. The pitcher graded 56.5/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 61.0; the confirmed lineup carried a 24.2% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 1.1 strikeouts above the point projection. The projection supported the ticket, but the actual result crossed to the other side of the sportsbook line. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability60.4%

Price break-even46.5%

Calculated difference+13.9 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Logan Gilbert vs. NYY

Projected Ks: 5.9
Actual Ks: 7

Pitcher value56.5

Opponent K matchup61.0

Lineup K rate24.2%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced23.8

Evidence quality90%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.64 Ks. Robustness: 78%.

Pitcher prop

Jacob deGrom Under 6.5 strikeouts

TEX at LAA · 3 strikeouts · under 6.5

Fanatics Sportsbook +110winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: Jacob deGrom Under 6.5 Ks

Jacob deGrom finished with 3 strikeouts, cashing the saved under 6.5 and adding +1.10 units to the prop record.

At Fanatics Sportsbook +110, the model gave the under 65.5% against a 47.6% break-even mark, a +17.9-point gap. The saved projection was 5.5 strikeouts across 22.2 batters faced. The pitcher graded 56.8/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 62.1; the confirmed lineup carried a 22.5% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 2.5 strikeouts below the point projection. The ticket and the point projection told the same story. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability65.5%

Price break-even47.6%

Calculated difference+17.9 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Jacob deGrom vs. LAA

Projected Ks: 5.5
Actual Ks: 3

Pitcher value56.8

Opponent K matchup62.1

Lineup K rate22.5%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced22.2

Evidence quality88%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.54 Ks. Robustness: 76%.

What comes next

What we take forward

Each result can raise a useful question, but no single game rewrites the model. Any adjustment has to repeat across comparable frozen reads and survive a prospective test first.

Technical receipt

Fact pack: 915706af66ddc84012826c795c79e47bf4451cdcb799b85f953d2f743b47f93d

Decision receipts: mlb-current-decision:76d6b27fda8ed87fba8746e7c8d53a57, mlb-current-decision:e2f4df3ed9a23ed75f8ecfd7ed756364, mlb-current-decision:75fad161f3f9cb26ca14738c2562b613, mlb-k-prop-133e51a2c7b7862593b106cf, mlb-k-prop-f051ae93be4666c0f55f497a, mlb-k-prop-723e8ccb22daaa01255dbe66

Settlement receipts: mlb_live_settlement_4d83e01fd1567a0e649abc83, mlb_live_settlement_c371d02013c93bd0d48b57f7, mlb_live_settlement_a8efbce5ba4d288283cc766f, 802a1325e08e5c80ba9a4a24cc5b1f74fa53b28db2e5839b94929bd911530272, b039ae891814d189b2dd39e45fbcea40e5ffdc8a1264812000a1e30905236224, 407250ba6b0955ff4e3fcf542264efe031149a1bd2fdc7c42ceea009c9dd36c8