Settled model recap · 2026-08-10

MLB Game & Prop Picks Recap for August 10, 2026: 2-4, -1.91 units

Review 3 game Picks and 3 pitcher-prop Picks from August 10, 2026 with the exact saved sportsbook prices, model probabilities, lineup or player values, final results, and plain-English postgame review.

Published after the saved Picks settled. The original prices and inputs stay attached.

Record2-4-0

Net units-1.91u

Game Picks3

Player Props3

One-minute recap

The card missed: 3 game Picks and 3 pitcher-prop Picks finished 2-4 for -1.91 units. The useful question is which assumptions failed, not how to explain the result after the fact.

Saved Picks and reviews

Open any Pick for the why

MLB Game Picks

3 game Picks, reviewed from the saved lineup, player, team, and moneyline snapshot.

Game Pick

OAK moneyline

TB at OAK · TB 10, OAK 6

Williamhill Us +149lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: OAK +149

OAK did not get there in a TB 10, OAK 6 final. The saved Williamhill Us +149 price cost 1.00 unit on the game-pick record.

The pregame case started with Williamhill Us OAK +149. We made the side 40.3%; the price needed 40.2%. That left 0.2 percentage points of room over the price's break-even mark. The strongest public counterweight was Long-run team strength, which pulled 1.57 probability points away from OAK. The starting-pitcher values were nearly even: Jacob Lopez rated 45.8, compared with Freddy Peralta at 44.7. The two confirmed lineups graded about even: OAK 49.9, TB 51.0. The top displayed hitters were Tyler Soderstrom (53.5) and Junior Caminero (59.0). TB had the higher bullpen rating: OAK 46.9, TB 51.6.

The price case was there; the result was not. We will compare this starter, lineup, and bullpen profile with future frozen reads before deciding whether the miss was noise or a repeatable blind spot.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability40.3%

Price break-even40.2%

Calculated difference+0.2 pts

Selected side

OAK

Team form37.6

Lineup form49.9

Starting pitcher45.8

Bullpen available46.9

Opponent

TB

Team form52.3

Lineup form51.0

Starting pitcher44.7

Bullpen available51.6

Values use the saved 0–100 rolling scale. They are inputs to the selection screen, not direct probability-point weights.

Game Pick

SF moneyline

HOU at SF · HOU 6, SF 3

Williamhill Us +137lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: SF +137

SF did not get there in a HOU 6, SF 3 final. The saved Williamhill Us +137 price cost 1.00 unit on the game-pick record.

The pregame case started with Williamhill Us SF +137. We made the side 42.3%; the price needed 42.2%. That left 0.1 percentage points of room over the price's break-even mark. The strongest public counterweight was Long-run team strength, which pulled 0.92 probability points away from SF. The starting-pitcher values were nearly even: Blade Tidwell rated 52.7, compared with Hayden Wesneski at 53.6. The two confirmed lineups graded about even: SF 50.5, HOU 52.0. The top displayed hitters were Osleivis Basabe (55.5) and Yordan Alvarez (63.0). HOU had the higher bullpen rating: SF 49.9, HOU 53.0.

The price case was there; the result was not. We will compare this starter, lineup, and bullpen profile with future frozen reads before deciding whether the miss was noise or a repeatable blind spot.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability42.3%

Price break-even42.2%

Calculated difference+0.1 pts

Selected side

SF

Team form49.6

Lineup form50.5

Starting pitcher52.7

Bullpen available49.9

Opponent

HOU

Team form54.3

Lineup form52.0

Starting pitcher53.6

Bullpen available53.0

Values use the saved 0–100 rolling scale. They are inputs to the selection screen, not direct probability-point weights.

Game Pick

KC moneyline

KC at LAD · KC 5, LAD 6

DraftKings +259lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: KC +259

KC did not get there in a KC 5, LAD 6 final. The saved DraftKings +259 price cost 1.00 unit on the game-pick record.

The pregame case started with DraftKings KC +259. We made the side 28.6%; the price needed 27.9%. That left 0.7 percentage points of room over the price's break-even mark. The strongest public counterweight was Long-run team strength, which pulled 0.61 probability points away from KC. LAD carried the higher starter rating: Noah Cameron rated 50.1, compared with Tarik Skubal at 60.0. The two confirmed lineups graded about even: KC 49.7, LAD 51.7. The top displayed hitters were Bobby Witt Jr. (53.7) and Freddie Freeman (58.6). The bullpen snapshot was essentially even: KC 48.1, LAD 48.7.

The price case was there; the result was not. We will compare this starter, lineup, and bullpen profile with future frozen reads before deciding whether the miss was noise or a repeatable blind spot.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability28.6%

Price break-even27.9%

Calculated difference+0.7 pts

Selected side

KC

Team form45.7

Lineup form49.7

Starting pitcher50.1

Bullpen available48.1

Opponent

LAD

Team form49.2

Lineup form51.7

Starting pitcher60.0

Bullpen available48.7

Values use the saved 0–100 rolling scale. They are inputs to the selection screen, not direct probability-point weights.

MLB Player Props

3 pitcher strikeout Picks, reviewed from the saved opponent lineup, workload projection, and prop price.

Pitcher prop

Bryce Elder Over 4.5 strikeouts

NYM at ATL · 4 strikeouts · over 4.5

FanDuel +102lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: Bryce Elder Over 4.5 Ks

Bryce Elder finished with 4 strikeouts, leaving the saved over 4.5 on the wrong side of the line for a 1.00-unit loss.

At FanDuel +102, the model gave the over 54.9% against a 49.5% break-even mark, a +5.4-point gap. The saved projection was 5.1 strikeouts across 23.8 batters faced. The pitcher graded 43.0/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 45.5; the confirmed lineup carried a 23.0% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 1.1 strikeouts below the point projection. The projection supported the ticket, but the actual result crossed to the other side of the sportsbook line. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability54.9%

Price break-even49.5%

Calculated difference+5.4 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Bryce Elder vs. NYM

Projected Ks: 5.1
Actual Ks: 4

Pitcher value43.0

Opponent K matchup45.5

Lineup K rate23.0%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced23.8

Evidence quality90%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.44 Ks. Robustness: 77%.

Pitcher prop

Reid Detmers Under 6.5 strikeouts

TEX at LAA · 6 strikeouts · under 6.5

DraftKings +111winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: Reid Detmers Under 6.5 Ks

Reid Detmers finished with 6 strikeouts, cashing the saved under 6.5 and adding +1.11 units to the prop record.

At DraftKings +111, the model gave the under 61.6% against a 47.4% break-even mark, a +14.2-point gap. The saved projection was 5.8 strikeouts across 22.8 batters faced. The pitcher graded 53.8/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 64.7; the confirmed lineup carried a 24.1% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 0.2 strikeouts above the point projection. The ticket and the point projection told the same story. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability61.6%

Price break-even47.4%

Calculated difference+14.2 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Reid Detmers vs. TEX

Projected Ks: 5.8
Actual Ks: 6

Pitcher value53.8

Opponent K matchup64.7

Lineup K rate24.1%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced22.8

Evidence quality89%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.61 Ks. Robustness: 77%.

Pitcher prop

Tarik Skubal Under 7.5 strikeouts

KC at LAD · 6 strikeouts · under 7.5

DraftKings -102winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: Tarik Skubal Under 7.5 Ks

Tarik Skubal finished with 6 strikeouts, cashing the saved under 7.5 and adding +0.98 units to the prop record.

At DraftKings -102, the model gave the under 73.9% against a 50.5% break-even mark, a +23.4-point gap. The saved projection was 5.8 strikeouts across 23.3 batters faced. The pitcher graded 60.0/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 62.1; the confirmed lineup carried a 22.1% strikeout rate.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability73.9%

Price break-even50.5%

Calculated difference+23.4 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Tarik Skubal vs. KC

Projected Ks: 5.8
Actual Ks: 6

Pitcher value60.0

Opponent K matchup62.1

Lineup K rate22.1%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced23.3

Evidence quality89%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.61 Ks. Robustness: 76%.

What comes next

What we take forward

Each result can raise a useful question, but no single game rewrites the model. Any adjustment has to repeat across comparable frozen reads and survive a prospective test first.

Technical receipt

Fact pack: 87de05ffb1024f7237b6e183f3f736ab06a557ce1c61bcdf7bad3124781fa288

Decision receipts: mlb-current-decision:a96f4e1e860fec76d8beacf09b25ffba, mlb-current-decision:ac1f039f9bdb501caa3dc13b3fac5b91, mlb-current-decision:96944ca81d3ee7fa57d55ff7ec7121d1, mlb-k-prop-32b04018e2930e1d2ec9de4b, mlb-k-prop-863d03b5b42ecc71418df426, mlb-k-prop-65df7346a9fed4cadb0d882f

Settlement receipts: mlb_live_settlement_877e2e5caff61d8ccce59cea, mlb_live_settlement_f21f5ab18c06ca8fc5a7b1bc, mlb_live_settlement_f1ee47294b68f3b7b27737e4, 27e317e8dfa168b04841789198529306a61bf8064b57fc2d00ff09ac0ae56d0d, c3ad2ddd20b3f22dd924b73c61830ee01deafa2ec7a5aa7b13c575a0875f0ae9, c94f1c2d5ca5585a7d4416a6cfe01d11d35e2d47620ee07e7e994ed9cc2c31c3