Settled model recap · 2026-08-11

MLB Game & Prop Picks Recap for August 11, 2026: 2-2, +0.70 units

Review 2 game Picks and 2 pitcher-prop Picks from August 11, 2026 with the exact saved sportsbook prices, model probabilities, lineup or player values, final results, and plain-English postgame review.

Published after the saved Picks settled. The original prices and inputs stay attached.

Record2-2-0

Net units+0.70u

Game Picks2

Player Props2

One-minute recap

The card finished 2-2 for +0.70 units. The result was mixed, so the individual price and projection reads matter more than the headline record.

Saved Picks and reviews

Open any Pick for the why

MLB Game Picks

2 game Picks, reviewed from the saved lineup, player, team, and moneyline snapshot.

Game Pick

CWS moneyline

CIN at CWS · CIN 5, CWS 4

DraftKings -148lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: CWS -148

CWS did not get there in a CIN 5, CWS 4 final. The saved DraftKings -148 price cost 1.00 unit on the game-pick record.

The pregame case started with DraftKings CWS -148. We made the side 59.1%; the price needed 59.7%. Our estimate sat 0.6 points below break-even. Even so, the matchup cleared the same lineup, price, and quality screen used for every spot on the daily card. The strongest public counterweight was Elo home-win baseline, which pulled 0.29 probability points away from CWS. CWS carried the higher starter rating: Sean Burke rated 59.1, compared with Nick Lodolo at 47.3. The two confirmed lineups graded about even: CWS 50.0, CIN 50.6. The top displayed hitters were Munetaka Murakami (56.1) and Elly De La Cruz (56.8). CWS had the higher bullpen rating: CWS 55.5, CIN 48.5.

The loss matched the pregame price warning. The next review is whether the first-complete-read policy should admit this below-break-even profile at all; one result will not change it automatically.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability59.1%

Price break-even59.7%

Calculated difference-0.6 pts

Selected side

CWS

Team form52.3

Lineup form50.0

Starting pitcher59.1

Bullpen available55.5

Opponent

CIN

Team form49.7

Lineup form50.6

Starting pitcher47.3

Bullpen available48.5

Values use the saved 0–100 rolling scale. They are inputs to the selection screen, not direct probability-point weights.

Game Pick

STL moneyline

PHI at STL · PHI 0, STL 2

DraftKings +150winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: STL +150

STL got the result in a PHI 0, STL 2 final. The DraftKings +150 ticket added +1.50 units to the game-pick record.

The pregame case started with DraftKings STL +150. We made the side 40.5%; the price needed 40.0%. That left 0.5 percentage points of room over the price's break-even mark. The strongest public counterweight was Long-run team strength, which pulled 0.63 probability points away from STL. PHI carried the higher starter rating: Andre Pallante rated 55.1, compared with Cristopher Sanchez at 59.6. PHI had the higher confirmed-lineup rating: STL 48.9, PHI 51.5. The top displayed hitters were Alec Burleson (55.6) and Bryce Harper (55.1). PHI had the higher bullpen rating: STL 47.5, PHI 53.8.

The result matched both the side and the saved price read. That is encouraging, not conclusive; the same profile still has to repeat before any live weight changes.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability40.5%

Price break-even40.0%

Calculated difference+0.5 pts

Selected side

STL

Team form47.2

Lineup form48.9

Starting pitcher55.1

Bullpen available47.5

Opponent

PHI

Team form52.8

Lineup form51.5

Starting pitcher59.6

Bullpen available53.8

Values use the saved 0–100 rolling scale. They are inputs to the selection screen, not direct probability-point weights.

MLB Player Props

2 pitcher strikeout Picks, reviewed from the saved opponent lineup, workload projection, and prop price.

Pitcher prop

Paul Skenes Under 6.5 strikeouts

PIT at MIA · 4 strikeouts · under 6.5

Fanatics Sportsbook +120winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: Paul Skenes Under 6.5 Ks

Paul Skenes finished with 4 strikeouts, cashing the saved under 6.5 and adding +1.20 units to the prop record.

At Fanatics Sportsbook +120, the model gave the under 66.3% against a 45.5% break-even mark, a +20.9-point gap. The saved projection was 5.5 strikeouts across 22.2 batters faced. The pitcher graded 58.4/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 60.9; the confirmed lineup carried a 21.4% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 1.5 strikeouts below the point projection. The ticket and the point projection told the same story. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability66.3%

Price break-even45.5%

Calculated difference+20.9 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Paul Skenes vs. MIA

Projected Ks: 5.5
Actual Ks: 4

Pitcher value58.4

Opponent K matchup60.9

Lineup K rate21.4%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced22.2

Evidence quality90%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.53 Ks. Robustness: 77%.

Pitcher prop

Andre Pallante Over 3.5 strikeouts

PHI at STL · 2 strikeouts · over 3.5

BetRivers -103lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: Andre Pallante Over 3.5 Ks

Andre Pallante finished with 2 strikeouts, leaving the saved over 3.5 on the wrong side of the line for a 1.00-unit loss.

At BetRivers -103, the model gave the over 63.4% against a 50.7% break-even mark, a +12.7-point gap. The saved projection was 4.6 strikeouts across 23.4 batters faced. The pitcher graded 55.1/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 35.2; the confirmed lineup carried a 20.6% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 2.6 strikeouts below the point projection. The projection supported the ticket, but the actual result crossed to the other side of the sportsbook line. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability63.4%

Price break-even50.7%

Calculated difference+12.7 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Andre Pallante vs. PHI

Projected Ks: 4.6
Actual Ks: 2

Pitcher value55.1

Opponent K matchup35.2

Lineup K rate20.6%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced23.4

Evidence quality91%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.29 Ks. Robustness: 78%.

What comes next

What we take forward

Each result can raise a useful question, but no single game rewrites the model. Any adjustment has to repeat across comparable frozen reads and survive a prospective test first.

Technical receipt

Fact pack: 7b11bcafa8b9bae9650f1d42465765c2b6a56ff49838bcdbea3a9ef743939a9b

Decision receipts: mlb-current-decision:1f492755c9b78872931b95f483af589c, mlb-current-decision:c7b74eaa60d3b6c51205e28e2796b13d, mlb-k-prop-4129baedcb25088ee4c30655, mlb-k-prop-05a0ef9fa0c1def6e9823faa

Settlement receipts: mlb_live_settlement_b6b4aad5b8629ea2eb61b9d7, mlb_live_settlement_808ab5140bda5f50257fb189, ba7c487b9a2c93746651f2381e6bcde244947221cc93329958f7a35c99a7da4a, 0b2ecf4d0bce9e772b1460e9bdcf84b75d095edf22fae0d8cce93f9939b6bddd