Settled model recap · 2026-08-09

MLB Game & Prop Picks Recap for August 9, 2026: 2-4, -1.36 units

Review 3 game Picks and 3 pitcher-prop Picks from August 9, 2026 with the exact saved sportsbook prices, model probabilities, lineup or player values, final results, and plain-English postgame review.

Published after the saved Picks settled. The original prices and inputs stay attached.

Record2-4-0

Net units-1.36u

Game Picks3

Player Props3

One-minute recap

The card missed: 3 game Picks and 3 pitcher-prop Picks finished 2-4 for -1.36 units. The useful question is which assumptions failed, not how to explain the result after the fact.

Saved Picks and reviews

Open any Pick for the why

MLB Game Picks

3 game Picks, reviewed from the saved lineup, player, team, and moneyline snapshot.

Game Pick

ATL moneyline

ATL at NYY · ATL 2, NYY 1

Williamhill Us +132winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: ATL +132

ATL got the result in a ATL 2, NYY 1 final. The Williamhill Us +132 ticket added +1.32 units to the game-pick record.

The pregame case started with Williamhill Us ATL +132. We made the side 43.1%; the price needed 43.1%. That left 0.0 percentage points of room over the price's break-even mark. The strongest public push toward ATL was Long-run team strength, worth 0.12 probability points in the saved calculation. NYY carried the higher starter rating: Grant Holmes rated 45.0, compared with Cam Schlittler at 58.7. The two confirmed lineups graded about even: ATL 51.3, NYY 50.7. The top displayed hitters were Matt Olson (57.5) and Luis Garcia Jr. (59.5). The bullpen snapshot was essentially even: ATL 52.8, NYY 51.4.

The result matched both the side and the saved price read. That is encouraging, not conclusive; the same profile still has to repeat before any live weight changes.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability43.1%

Price break-even43.1%

Calculated difference+0.0 pts

Selected side

ATL

Team form53.2

Lineup form51.3

Starting pitcher45.0

Bullpen available52.8

Opponent

NYY

Team form50.2

Lineup form50.7

Starting pitcher58.7

Bullpen available51.4

Values use the saved 0–100 rolling scale. They are inputs to the selection screen, not direct probability-point weights.

Game Pick

BOS moneyline

OAK at BOS · OAK 4, BOS 3

Williamhill Us -219lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: BOS -219

BOS did not get there in a OAK 4, BOS 3 final. The saved Williamhill Us -219 price cost 1.00 unit on the game-pick record.

The pregame case started with Williamhill Us BOS -219. We made the side 68.6%; the price needed 68.7%. Our estimate sat 0.1 points below break-even. Even so, the matchup cleared the same lineup, price, and quality screen used for every spot on the daily card. The strongest public push toward BOS was Long-run team strength, worth 2.04 probability points in the saved calculation. The starting-pitcher values were nearly even: Erik Miller rated 50.0, compared with J.T. Ginn at 50.1. BOS had the higher confirmed-lineup rating: BOS 51.5, OAK 48.7. The top displayed hitters were Willson Contreras (59.8) and Tyler Soderstrom (53.5). BOS had the higher bullpen rating: BOS 58.5, OAK 46.8.

The loss matched the pregame price warning. The next review is whether the first-complete-read policy should admit this below-break-even profile at all; one result will not change it automatically.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability68.6%

Price break-even68.7%

Calculated difference-0.1 pts

Selected side

BOS

Team form60.2

Lineup form51.5

Starting pitcher50.0

Bullpen available58.5

Opponent

OAK

Team form37.6

Lineup form48.7

Starting pitcher50.1

Bullpen available46.8

Values use the saved 0–100 rolling scale. They are inputs to the selection screen, not direct probability-point weights.

Game Pick

NYM moneyline

NYM at PIT · NYM 11, PIT 1

Williamhill Us +132winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: NYM +132

NYM got the result in a NYM 11, PIT 1 final. The Williamhill Us +132 ticket added +1.32 units to the game-pick record.

The pregame case started with Williamhill Us NYM +132. We made the side 43.1%; the price needed 43.1%. That left 0.0 percentage points of room over the price's break-even mark. The strongest public push toward NYM was Elo home-win baseline, worth 0.36 probability points in the saved calculation. PIT carried the higher starter rating: Sean Manaea rated 47.2, compared with Jared Jones at 52.1. PIT had the higher confirmed-lineup rating: NYM 49.2, PIT 51.5. The top displayed hitters were Francisco Alvarez (53.5) and Esmerlyn Valdez (58.4). The bullpen snapshot was essentially even: NYM 51.5, PIT 52.8.

The result matched both the side and the saved price read. That is encouraging, not conclusive; the same profile still has to repeat before any live weight changes.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability43.1%

Price break-even43.1%

Calculated difference+0.0 pts

Selected side

NYM

Team form48.7

Lineup form49.2

Starting pitcher47.2

Bullpen available51.5

Opponent

PIT

Team form48.8

Lineup form51.5

Starting pitcher52.1

Bullpen available52.8

Values use the saved 0–100 rolling scale. They are inputs to the selection screen, not direct probability-point weights.

MLB Player Props

3 pitcher strikeout Picks, reviewed from the saved opponent lineup, workload projection, and prop price.

Pitcher prop

Cam Schlittler Under 6.5 strikeouts

ATL at NYY · 11 strikeouts · under 6.5

Betonlineag +128lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: Cam Schlittler Under 6.5 Ks

Cam Schlittler finished with 11 strikeouts, leaving the saved under 6.5 on the wrong side of the line for a 1.00-unit loss.

At Betonlineag +128, the model gave the under 62.0% against a 43.9% break-even mark, a +18.1-point gap. The saved projection was 5.8 strikeouts across 22.8 batters faced. The pitcher graded 58.7/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 64.0; the confirmed lineup carried a 22.0% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 5.2 strikeouts above the point projection. The projection supported the ticket, but the actual result crossed to the other side of the sportsbook line. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability62.0%

Price break-even43.9%

Calculated difference+18.1 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Cam Schlittler vs. ATL

Projected Ks: 5.8
Actual Ks: 11

Pitcher value58.7

Opponent K matchup64.0

Lineup K rate22.0%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced22.8

Evidence quality90%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.60 Ks. Robustness: 78%.

Pitcher prop

Jacob Misiorowski Under 8.5 strikeouts

MIN at MIL · 9 strikeouts · under 8.5

DraftKings +117lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: Jacob Misiorowski Under 8.5 Ks

Jacob Misiorowski finished with 9 strikeouts, leaving the saved under 8.5 on the wrong side of the line for a 1.00-unit loss.

At DraftKings +117, the model gave the under 79.3% against a 46.1% break-even mark, a +33.2-point gap. The saved projection was 6.2 strikeouts across 22.5 batters faced. The pitcher graded 64.4/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 74.9; the confirmed lineup carried a 20.3% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 2.8 strikeouts above the point projection. The projection supported the ticket, but the actual result crossed to the other side of the sportsbook line. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability79.3%

Price break-even46.1%

Calculated difference+33.2 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Jacob Misiorowski vs. MIN

Projected Ks: 6.2
Actual Ks: 9

Pitcher value64.4

Opponent K matchup74.9

Lineup K rate20.3%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced22.5

Evidence quality90%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.70 Ks. Robustness: 77%.

Pitcher prop

Davis Martin Over 3.5 strikeouts

CLE at CWS · 1 strikeouts · over 3.5

DraftKings -118lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: Davis Martin Over 3.5 Ks

Davis Martin finished with 1 strikeouts, leaving the saved over 3.5 on the wrong side of the line for a 1.00-unit loss.

At DraftKings -118, the model gave the over 65.1% against a 54.1% break-even mark, a +11.0-point gap. The saved projection was 4.7 strikeouts across 23.6 batters faced. The pitcher graded 49.8/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 37.1; the confirmed lineup carried a 19.0% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 3.7 strikeouts below the point projection. The projection supported the ticket, but the actual result crossed to the other side of the sportsbook line. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability65.1%

Price break-even54.1%

Calculated difference+11.0 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Davis Martin vs. CLE

Projected Ks: 4.7
Actual Ks: 1

Pitcher value49.8

Opponent K matchup37.1

Lineup K rate19.0%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced23.6

Evidence quality90%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.32 Ks. Robustness: 77%.

What comes next

What we take forward

Each result can raise a useful question, but no single game rewrites the model. Any adjustment has to repeat across comparable frozen reads and survive a prospective test first.

Technical receipt

Fact pack: d7805551d8cd7e55755e303ad5e6ebba272cbd314531e3a18cd6b81d2648f2c8

Decision receipts: mlb-current-decision:319bcc68d012b49b122e940405c4cce4, mlb-current-decision:4c16379e52a2440c1c228c936e9af6e0, mlb-current-decision:dc39cf1fe1c5ce07fbfac86bbcc5748d, mlb-k-prop-46f71afe34faf726ec34031c, mlb-k-prop-b640d2e0e2cc5dcdd3a280fb, mlb-k-prop-d4827e669e6e78fe4910cf0f

Settlement receipts: mlb_live_settlement_bf73787a86cffeb020a187ed, mlb_live_settlement_386629fb51354035e8b7058b, mlb_live_settlement_1e41371345dcd4442c57f882, 76d48b823be4b4960467a5c8dd895e5bc5de910d83cec3e7d1ca5cb23c6d0104, 46497c48d9f4879de10769c7801e923e16695d860809e645d94e75d5408c6d0b, d2ab207914318d739b87125acbd370ea043c4dbd97dec49852290668fd94e7f4