Settled model recap · 2026-08-08

MLB Game & Prop Picks Recap for August 8, 2026: 2-4, -1.12 units

Review 3 game Picks and 3 pitcher-prop Picks from August 8, 2026 with the exact saved sportsbook prices, model probabilities, lineup or player values, final results, and plain-English postgame review.

Published after the saved Picks settled. The original prices and inputs stay attached.

Record2-4-0

Net units-1.12u

Game Picks3

Player Props3

One-minute recap

The card missed: 3 game Picks and 3 pitcher-prop Picks finished 2-4 for -1.12 units. The useful question is which assumptions failed, not how to explain the result after the fact.

Saved Picks and reviews

Open any Pick for the why

MLB Game Picks

3 game Picks, reviewed from the saved lineup, player, team, and moneyline snapshot.

Game Pick

BOS moneyline

OAK at BOS · OAK 7, BOS 3

FanDuel -250lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: BOS -250

BOS did not get there in a OAK 7, BOS 3 final. The saved FanDuel -250 price cost 1.00 unit on the game-pick record.

The pregame case started with FanDuel BOS -250. We made the side 71.0%; the price needed 71.4%. Our estimate sat 0.5 points below break-even. Even so, the matchup cleared the same lineup, price, and quality screen used for every spot on the daily card. The strongest public push toward BOS was Long-run team strength, worth 1.96 probability points in the saved calculation. BOS carried the higher starter rating: Jake Bennett rated 56.2, compared with Gage Jump at 50.4. BOS had the higher confirmed-lineup rating: BOS 52.0, OAK 49.0. The top displayed hitters were Willson Contreras (59.8) and Tyler Soderstrom (53.5). BOS had the higher bullpen rating: BOS 58.4, OAK 48.5.

The loss matched the pregame price warning. The next review is whether the first-complete-read policy should admit this below-break-even profile at all; one result will not change it automatically.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability71.0%

Price break-even71.4%

Calculated difference-0.5 pts

Selected side

BOS

Team form60.2

Lineup form52.0

Starting pitcher56.2

Bullpen available58.4

Opponent

OAK

Team form37.6

Lineup form49.0

Starting pitcher50.4

Bullpen available48.5

Values use the saved 0–100 rolling scale. They are inputs to the selection screen, not direct probability-point weights.

Game Pick

LAA moneyline

LAA at MIA · LAA 0, MIA 7

Williamhill Us +145lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: LAA +145

LAA did not get there in a LAA 0, MIA 7 final. The saved Williamhill Us +145 price cost 1.00 unit on the game-pick record.

The pregame case started with Williamhill Us LAA +145. We made the side 40.9%; the price needed 40.8%. That left 0.1 percentage points of room over the price's break-even mark. The strongest public counterweight was Long-run team strength, which pulled 0.99 probability points away from LAA. The starting-pitcher values were nearly even: Walbert Urena rated 53.6, compared with Sandy Alcantara at 52.4. The two confirmed lineups graded about even: LAA 49.5, MIA 51.4. The top displayed hitters were Wade Meckler (53.6) and Griffin Conine (56.1). The bullpen snapshot was essentially even: LAA 51.8, MIA 50.6.

The price case was there; the result was not. We will compare this starter, lineup, and bullpen profile with future frozen reads before deciding whether the miss was noise or a repeatable blind spot.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability40.9%

Price break-even40.8%

Calculated difference+0.1 pts

Selected side

LAA

Team form44.2

Lineup form49.5

Starting pitcher53.6

Bullpen available51.8

Opponent

MIA

Team form50.3

Lineup form51.4

Starting pitcher52.4

Bullpen available50.6

Values use the saved 0–100 rolling scale. They are inputs to the selection screen, not direct probability-point weights.

Game Pick

TOR moneyline

TOR at PHI · TOR 7, PHI 5

BetRivers +163winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: TOR +163

TOR got the result in a TOR 7, PHI 5 final. The BetRivers +163 ticket added +1.63 units to the game-pick record.

The pregame case started with BetRivers TOR +163. We made the side 39.1%; the price needed 38.0%. That left 1.0 percentage points of room over the price's break-even mark. The strongest public counterweight was Long-run team strength, which pulled 0.39 probability points away from TOR. TOR carried the higher starter rating: Max Scherzer rated 46.3, compared with Aaron Nola at 40.5. PHI had the higher confirmed-lineup rating: TOR 48.2, PHI 52.1. The top displayed hitters were George Springer (53.4) and Bryan De La Cruz (57.6). PHI had the higher bullpen rating: TOR 52.0, PHI 54.6.

The result matched both the side and the saved price read. That is encouraging, not conclusive; the same profile still has to repeat before any live weight changes.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability39.1%

Price break-even38.0%

Calculated difference+1.0 pts

Selected side

TOR

Team form47.2

Lineup form48.2

Starting pitcher46.3

Bullpen available52.0

Opponent

PHI

Team form52.8

Lineup form52.1

Starting pitcher40.5

Bullpen available54.6

Values use the saved 0–100 rolling scale. They are inputs to the selection screen, not direct probability-point weights.

MLB Player Props

3 pitcher strikeout Picks, reviewed from the saved opponent lineup, workload projection, and prop price.

Pitcher prop

Chris Sale Under 7.5 strikeouts

ATL at NYY · 8 strikeouts · under 7.5

Bovada +145lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: Chris Sale Under 7.5 Ks

Chris Sale finished with 8 strikeouts, leaving the saved under 7.5 on the wrong side of the line for a 1.00-unit loss.

At Bovada +145, the model gave the under 70.2% against a 40.8% break-even mark, a +29.4-point gap. The saved projection was 6.1 strikeouts across 23.2 batters faced. The pitcher graded 64.5/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 68.7; the confirmed lineup carried a 24.3% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 1.9 strikeouts above the point projection. The projection supported the ticket, but the actual result crossed to the other side of the sportsbook line. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability70.2%

Price break-even40.8%

Calculated difference+29.4 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Chris Sale vs. NYY

Projected Ks: 6.1
Actual Ks: 8

Pitcher value64.5

Opponent K matchup68.7

Lineup K rate24.3%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced23.2

Evidence quality88%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.69 Ks. Robustness: 76%.

Pitcher prop

Kyle Freeland Over 3.5 strikeouts

COL at STL · 3 strikeouts · over 3.5

BetMGM -105lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: Kyle Freeland Over 3.5 Ks

Kyle Freeland finished with 3 strikeouts, leaving the saved over 3.5 on the wrong side of the line for a 1.00-unit loss.

At BetMGM -105, the model gave the over 65.8% against a 51.2% break-even mark, a +14.6-point gap. The saved projection was 4.7 strikeouts across 23.8 batters faced. The pitcher graded 49.2/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 36.9; the confirmed lineup carried a 19.7% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 1.7 strikeouts below the point projection. The projection supported the ticket, but the actual result crossed to the other side of the sportsbook line. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability65.8%

Price break-even51.2%

Calculated difference+14.6 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Kyle Freeland vs. STL

Projected Ks: 4.7
Actual Ks: 3

Pitcher value49.2

Opponent K matchup36.9

Lineup K rate19.7%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced23.8

Evidence quality89%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.33 Ks. Robustness: 77%.

Pitcher prop

Gavin Williams Under 7.5 strikeouts

CLE at CWS · 7 strikeouts · under 7.5

BetMGM +125winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: Gavin Williams Under 7.5 Ks

Gavin Williams finished with 7 strikeouts, cashing the saved under 7.5 and adding +1.25 units to the prop record.

At BetMGM +125, the model gave the under 66.3% against a 44.4% break-even mark, a +21.8-point gap. The saved projection was 6.4 strikeouts across 24.0 batters faced. The pitcher graded 58.1/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 70.5; the confirmed lineup carried a 23.9% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 0.6 strikeouts above the point projection. The ticket and the point projection told the same story. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability66.3%

Price break-even44.4%

Calculated difference+21.8 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Gavin Williams vs. CWS

Projected Ks: 6.4
Actual Ks: 7

Pitcher value58.1

Opponent K matchup70.5

Lineup K rate23.9%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced24.0

Evidence quality90%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.76 Ks. Robustness: 78%.

What comes next

What we take forward

Each result can raise a useful question, but no single game rewrites the model. Any adjustment has to repeat across comparable frozen reads and survive a prospective test first.

Technical receipt

Fact pack: 5bb9720523097f52adf7fd14078b7f52344ffe504c80de549b57fc70190be6bf

Decision receipts: mlb-current-decision:19405698a9282a69c4582d84759541a4, mlb-current-decision:de24a12b80785463510643d192d60990, mlb-current-decision:f42c76bf05fe95f84a3c7272103fba75, mlb-k-prop-2742231e89f81900a4cef3a5, mlb-k-prop-533a85f1da2f18d5e6325cde, mlb-k-prop-ba1323a66d2b271182de04ec

Settlement receipts: mlb_live_settlement_f61de4ad277c1c418166b4fa, mlb_live_settlement_395f57c1f2d51f5679b99bac, mlb_live_settlement_05ccd8b02781ed7e75720af3, 020595392cdd766596ff9fb630bf6d0a3284126c168b3779051c7c664a4f0e4f, 7f52d27a3009f71f8c4fc5ec11b72b8cee9368c0cccfc71d9a6d1b42bdf980e8, f533a3c0dbf5253d1ae447e38b997b08c56cf9d81e53653d4b35a69949df87b7