Settled model recap · 2026-08-05

MLB Game & Prop Picks Recap for August 5, 2026: 3-1, +1.81 units

Review 3 game Picks and 1 pitcher-prop Pick from August 5, 2026 with the exact saved sportsbook prices, model probabilities, lineup or player values, final results, and plain-English postgame review.

Published after the saved Picks settled. The original prices and inputs stay attached.

Record3-1-0

Net units+1.81u

Game Picks3

Player Props1

One-minute recap

A strong result on the scoreboard: 3 game Picks and 1 pitcher-prop Pick finished 3-1 for +1.81 units. The review below separates the reads that matched their projections from the outcomes where the saved price did more of the work.

Saved Picks and reviews

Open any Pick for the why

MLB Game Picks

3 game Picks, reviewed from the saved lineup, player, team, and moneyline snapshot.

Game Pick

HOU moneyline

TOR at HOU · TOR 5, HOU 4

DraftKings -208lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: HOU -208

HOU did not get there in a TOR 5, HOU 4 final. The saved DraftKings -208 price cost 1.00 unit on the game-pick record.

The pregame case started with DraftKings HOU -208. We made the side 67.1%; the price needed 67.5%. Our estimate sat 0.4 points below break-even. Even so, the matchup cleared the same lineup, price, and quality screen used for every spot on the daily card. The strongest public push toward HOU was Long-run team strength, worth 0.53 probability points in the saved calculation. HOU carried the higher starter rating: Hunter Brown rated 43.2, compared with Jameson Taillon at 39.5. The two confirmed lineups graded about even: HOU 50.3, TOR 48.5. The top displayed hitters were Yordan Alvarez (63.9) and Kazuma Okamoto (50.6). The bullpen snapshot was essentially even: HOU 52.4, TOR 53.2.

The loss matched the pregame price warning. The next review is whether the first-complete-read policy should admit this below-break-even profile at all; one result will not change it automatically.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability67.1%

Price break-even67.5%

Calculated difference-0.4 pts

Selected side

HOU

Team form50.2

Lineup form50.3

Starting pitcher43.2

Bullpen available52.4

Opponent

TOR

Team form43.5

Lineup form48.5

Starting pitcher39.5

Bullpen available53.2

Values use the saved 0–100 rolling scale. They are inputs to the selection screen, not direct probability-point weights.

Game Pick

CHC moneyline

LAD at CHC · LAD 6, CHC 7

DraftKings -108winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: CHC -108

CHC got the result in a LAD 6, CHC 7 final. The DraftKings -108 ticket added +0.93 units to the game-pick record.

The pregame case started with DraftKings CHC -108. We made the side 52.2%; the price needed 51.9%. That left 0.3 percentage points of room over the price's break-even mark. The strongest public counterweight was Long-run team strength, which pulled 0.38 probability points away from CHC. CHC carried the higher starter rating: Shota Imanaga rated 47.3, compared with Eric Lauer at 40.8. The two confirmed lineups graded about even: CHC 52.5, LAD 52.5. The top displayed hitters were Pete Crow-Armstrong (60.6) and Tommy Edman (57.5). The bullpen snapshot was essentially even: CHC 50.1, LAD 51.3.

The result matched both the side and the saved price read. That is encouraging, not conclusive; the same profile still has to repeat before any live weight changes.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability52.2%

Price break-even51.9%

Calculated difference+0.3 pts

Selected side

CHC

Team form55.1

Lineup form52.5

Starting pitcher47.3

Bullpen available50.1

Opponent

LAD

Team form53.8

Lineup form52.5

Starting pitcher40.8

Bullpen available51.3

Values use the saved 0–100 rolling scale. They are inputs to the selection screen, not direct probability-point weights.

Game Pick

TEX moneyline

SF at TEX · SF 0, TEX 6

DraftKings -147winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: TEX -147

TEX got the result in a SF 0, TEX 6 final. The DraftKings -147 ticket added +0.68 units to the game-pick record.

The pregame case started with DraftKings TEX -147. We made the side 59.2%; the price needed 59.5%. Our estimate sat 0.3 points below break-even. Even so, the matchup cleared the same lineup, price, and quality screen used for every spot on the daily card. The strongest public push toward TEX was Long-run team strength, worth 0.52 probability points in the saved calculation. TEX carried the higher starter rating: Cody Bradford rated 50.0, compared with Carson Whisenhunt at 47.8. The two confirmed lineups graded about even: TEX 51.2, SF 50.2. The top displayed hitters were Wyatt Langford (57.3) and Bryce Eldridge (54.0). TEX had the higher bullpen rating: TEX 52.6, SF 49.7.

The side won, but the price concern remains. A winning result does not turn a below-break-even calculation into value; this daily-card profile stays in review and the live weights stay unchanged.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability59.2%

Price break-even59.5%

Calculated difference-0.3 pts

Selected side

TEX

Team form47.3

Lineup form51.2

Starting pitcher50.0

Bullpen available52.6

Opponent

SF

Team form47.4

Lineup form50.2

Starting pitcher47.8

Bullpen available49.7

Values use the saved 0–100 rolling scale. They are inputs to the selection screen, not direct probability-point weights.

MLB Player Props

1 pitcher strikeout Pick, reviewed from the saved opponent lineup, workload projection, and prop price.

Pitcher prop

Paul Skenes Under 6.5 strikeouts

PIT at MIL · 6 strikeouts · under 6.5

FanDuel +120winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: Paul Skenes Under 6.5 Ks

Paul Skenes finished with 6 strikeouts, cashing the saved under 6.5 and adding +1.20 units to the prop record.

At FanDuel +120, the model gave the under 63.6% against a 45.5% break-even mark, a +18.1-point gap. The saved projection was 5.7 strikeouts across 22.2 batters faced. The pitcher graded 58.6/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 64.9; the confirmed lineup carried a 22.8% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 0.3 strikeouts above the point projection. The ticket and the point projection told the same story. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability63.6%

Price break-even45.5%

Calculated difference+18.1 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Paul Skenes vs. MIL

Projected Ks: 5.7
Actual Ks: 6

Pitcher value58.6

Opponent K matchup64.9

Lineup K rate22.8%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced22.3

Evidence quality87%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.58 Ks. Robustness: 77%.

What comes next

What we take forward

Each result can raise a useful question, but no single game rewrites the model. Any adjustment has to repeat across comparable frozen reads and survive a prospective test first.

Technical receipt

Fact pack: d43186ecb499614f2b020aa7c1ba88d7d99e92519c7048a8e20564e162f80ef9

Decision receipts: mlb-current-decision:edcbb340f41e378d27a2f886bba17644, mlb-current-decision:24b9e47832be9b7d96c08530613f56b0, mlb-current-decision:c0351c50f6a8c46eea996c5670843168, mlb-k-prop-99823186e116c74356b55b30

Settlement receipts: mlb_live_settlement_b6fd0abcaaf816e71d7d423f, mlb_live_settlement_361d04d9fce2049711493df8, mlb_live_settlement_8db6aa74066647b1f19bd2c3, c60c80572b0e7e8b75b326b88b642ff09dc6cfe05f43343a7a74ce1532fce254