Settled model recap · 2026-08-06
MLB Game & Prop Picks Recap for August 6, 2026: 2-2, +0.53 units
Review 3 game Picks and 1 pitcher-prop Pick from August 6, 2026 with the exact saved sportsbook prices, model probabilities, lineup or player values, final results, and plain-English postgame review.
Published after the saved Picks settled. The original prices and inputs stay attached.
One-minute recap
One-minute recap
The card finished 2-2 for +0.53 units. The result was mixed, so the individual price and projection reads matter more than the headline record.
Saved Picks and reviews
Open any Pick for the why
MLB Game Picks
3 game Picks, reviewed from the saved lineup, player, team, and moneyline snapshot.
Game PickWAS moneyline
WAS at PHI · WAS 3, PHI 7
DraftKings +288lossSee the review ↓
WAS moneyline
WAS at PHI · WAS 3, PHI 7
Postgame review
Lost: WAS +288
WAS did not get there in a WAS 3, PHI 7 final. The saved DraftKings +288 price cost 1.00 unit on the game-pick record.
The pregame case started with DraftKings WAS +288. We made the side 26.2%; the price needed 25.8%. That left 0.4 percentage points of room over the price's break-even mark. The strongest public counterweight was Long-run team strength, which pulled 0.55 probability points away from WAS. PHI carried the higher starter rating: Miles Mikolas rated 33.1, compared with Cristopher Sanchez at 59.8. The two confirmed lineups graded about even: WAS 50.9, PHI 51.5. The top displayed hitters were CJ Abrams (59.4) and Bryce Harper (55.2). PHI had the higher bullpen rating: WAS 48.7, PHI 54.3.
The price case was there; the result was not. We will compare this starter, lineup, and bullpen profile with future frozen reads before deciding whether the miss was noise or a repeatable blind spot.
Saved pregame inputs
Selected side
WAS
Opponent
PHI
Values use the saved 0–100 rolling scale. They are inputs to the selection screen, not direct probability-point weights.
Game PickMIA moneyline
MIA at ATL · MIA 3, ATL 11
DraftKings +147lossSee the review ↓
MIA moneyline
MIA at ATL · MIA 3, ATL 11
Postgame review
Lost: MIA +147
MIA did not get there in a MIA 3, ATL 11 final. The saved DraftKings +147 price cost 1.00 unit on the game-pick record.
The pregame case started with DraftKings MIA +147. We made the side 40.4%; the price needed 40.5%. Our estimate sat 0.1 points below break-even. Even so, the matchup cleared the same lineup, price, and quality screen used for every spot on the daily card. The strongest public push toward MIA was Elo home-win baseline, worth 0.35 probability points in the saved calculation. The starting-pitcher values were nearly even: Janson Junk rated 49.4, compared with Martin Perez at 48.5. The two confirmed lineups graded about even: MIA 51.0, ATL 51.0. The top displayed hitters were Esteury Ruiz (56.9) and Matt Olson (57.6). The bullpen snapshot was essentially even: MIA 50.4, ATL 52.2.
The loss matched the pregame price warning. The next review is whether the first-complete-read policy should admit this below-break-even profile at all; one result will not change it automatically.
Saved pregame inputs
Selected side
MIA
Opponent
ATL
Values use the saved 0–100 rolling scale. They are inputs to the selection screen, not direct probability-point weights.
Game PickMIN moneyline
MIN at KC · MIN 4, KC 3
Lowvig +121winSee the review ↓
MIN moneyline
MIN at KC · MIN 4, KC 3
Postgame review
Won: MIN +121
MIN got the result in a MIN 4, KC 3 final. The Lowvig +121 ticket added +1.21 units to the game-pick record.
The pregame case started with Lowvig MIN +121. We made the side 45.3%; the price needed 45.2%. That left 0.1 percentage points of room over the price's break-even mark. The strongest public push toward MIN was Long-run team strength, worth 0.40 probability points in the saved calculation. KC carried the higher starter rating: Bailey Ober rated 48.0, compared with Michael Wacha at 52.1. The two confirmed lineups graded about even: MIN 50.1, KC 50.1. The top displayed hitters were Trevor Larnach (55.3) and John Rave (54.0). MIN had the higher bullpen rating: MIN 51.9, KC 47.0.
The result matched both the side and the saved price read. That is encouraging, not conclusive; the same profile still has to repeat before any live weight changes.
Saved pregame inputs
Selected side
MIN
Opponent
KC
Values use the saved 0–100 rolling scale. They are inputs to the selection screen, not direct probability-point weights.
MLB Player Props
1 pitcher strikeout Pick, reviewed from the saved opponent lineup, workload projection, and prop price.
Pitcher propLuis Castillo Over 4.5 strikeouts
CWS at BOS · 5 strikeouts · over 4.5
FanDuel +132winSee the review ↓
Luis Castillo Over 4.5 strikeouts
CWS at BOS · 5 strikeouts · over 4.5
Postgame review
Won: Luis Castillo Over 4.5 Ks
Luis Castillo finished with 5 strikeouts, cashing the saved over 4.5 and adding +1.32 units to the prop record.
At FanDuel +132, the model gave the over 54.9% against a 43.1% break-even mark, a +11.8-point gap. The saved projection was 5.1 strikeouts across 24.9 batters faced. The pitcher graded 43.2/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 40.7; the confirmed lineup carried a 20.8% strikeout rate.
The actual result finished 0.1 strikeouts below the point projection. The ticket and the point projection told the same story. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.
Saved pregame inputs
Frozen pitcher-prop inputs
Luis Castillo vs. BOS
- Projected Ks
- 5.1
- Actual Ks
- 5
Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.45 Ks. Robustness: 75%.
What comes next
What we take forward
Each result can raise a useful question, but no single game rewrites the model. Any adjustment has to repeat across comparable frozen reads and survive a prospective test first.
Technical receipt
Fact pack: e55dd8cc9d912d61cdea0041cd33d521e1bb24bdd95ebe3f75908de6b0369a99
Decision receipts: mlb-current-decision:cc03c4c87b3ed779ce943ebabbe0974a, mlb-current-decision:6cc995b7bf4f12bb234a47b0f8040d01, mlb-current-decision:c630aada91b99b979a41c2c417d76da3, mlb-k-prop-c9113e693343649475ae54bb
Settlement receipts: mlb_live_settlement_8cc0facf511c30def1f91157, mlb_live_settlement_8165df11f1b47727e79e41e6, mlb_live_settlement_2e8971fdad44b1009b0eab19, efb922b8e906a0e05ad1462a07117f54b78f6c45170a7a09c7dedb9a4ba72ac9