Settled model recap · 2026-08-04

MLB Game & Prop Picks Recap for August 4, 2026: 2-2, -0.16 units

Review 3 game Picks and 1 pitcher-prop Pick from August 4, 2026 with the exact saved sportsbook prices, model probabilities, lineup or player values, final results, and plain-English postgame review.

Published after the saved Picks settled. The original prices and inputs stay attached.

Record2-2-0

Net units-0.16u

Game Picks3

Player Props1

One-minute recap

The card finished 2-2 for -0.16 units. The result was mixed, so the individual price and projection reads matter more than the headline record.

Saved Picks and reviews

Open any Pick for the why

MLB Game Picks

3 game Picks, reviewed from the saved lineup, player, team, and moneyline snapshot.

Game Pick

STL moneyline

STL at NYY · STL 0, NYY 2

BetRivers +180lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: STL +180

STL did not get there in a STL 0, NYY 2 final. The saved BetRivers +180 price cost 1.00 unit on the game-pick record.

The pregame case started with BetRivers STL +180. We made the side 35.9%; the price needed 35.7%. That left 0.2 percentage points of room over the price's break-even mark. The strongest public push toward STL was Elo home-win baseline, worth 0.26 probability points in the saved calculation. The starting-pitcher values were nearly even: Hunter Dobbins rated 52.6, compared with Ryan Weathers at 52.1. NYY had the higher confirmed-lineup rating: STL 48.4, NYY 51.2. The top displayed hitters were Jordan Walker (54.4) and Luis Garcia Jr. (57.9). NYY had the higher bullpen rating: STL 48.2, NYY 52.6.

The price case was there; the result was not. We will compare this starter, lineup, and bullpen profile with future frozen reads before deciding whether the miss was noise or a repeatable blind spot.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability35.9%

Price break-even35.7%

Calculated difference+0.2 pts

Selected side

STL

Team form48.8

Lineup form48.4

Starting pitcher52.6

Bullpen available48.2

Opponent

NYY

Team form49.7

Lineup form51.2

Starting pitcher52.1

Bullpen available52.6

Values use the saved 0–100 rolling scale. They are inputs to the selection screen, not direct probability-point weights.

Game Pick

BOS moneyline

CWS at BOS · CWS 2, BOS 14

FanDuel -136winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: BOS -136

BOS got the result in a CWS 2, BOS 14 final. The FanDuel -136 ticket added +0.74 units to the game-pick record.

The pregame case started with FanDuel BOS -136. We made the side 57.7%; the price needed 57.6%. That left 0.1 percentage points of room over the price's break-even mark. The strongest public push toward BOS was Long-run team strength, worth 0.46 probability points in the saved calculation. CWS carried the higher starter rating: Patrick Sandoval rated 52.7, compared with Davis Martin at 55.6. The two confirmed lineups graded about even: BOS 51.4, CWS 50.5. The top displayed hitters were Willson Contreras (61.1) and Miguel Vargas (54.0). The bullpen snapshot was essentially even: BOS 56.3, CWS 55.5.

The result matched both the side and the saved price read. That is encouraging, not conclusive; the same profile still has to repeat before any live weight changes.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability57.7%

Price break-even57.6%

Calculated difference+0.1 pts

Selected side

BOS

Team form57.6

Lineup form51.4

Starting pitcher52.7

Bullpen available56.3

Opponent

CWS

Team form54.4

Lineup form50.5

Starting pitcher55.6

Bullpen available55.5

Values use the saved 0–100 rolling scale. They are inputs to the selection screen, not direct probability-point weights.

Game Pick

MIA moneyline

MIA at ATL · MIA 2, ATL 4

DraftKings +137lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: MIA +137

MIA did not get there in a MIA 2, ATL 4 final. The saved DraftKings +137 price cost 1.00 unit on the game-pick record.

The pregame case started with DraftKings MIA +137. We made the side 42.4%; the price needed 42.2%. That left 0.2 percentage points of room over the price's break-even mark. The strongest public push toward MIA was Regressed season form, worth 0.11 probability points in the saved calculation. The starting-pitcher values were nearly even: Ryan Gusto rated 47.3, compared with Grant Holmes at 45.4. The two confirmed lineups graded about even: MIA 51.7, ATL 51.5. The top displayed hitters were Otto Lopez (56.2) and Matt Olson (55.7). ATL had the higher bullpen rating: MIA 50.1, ATL 53.1.

The price case was there; the result was not. We will compare this starter, lineup, and bullpen profile with future frozen reads before deciding whether the miss was noise or a repeatable blind spot.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability42.4%

Price break-even42.2%

Calculated difference+0.2 pts

Selected side

MIA

Team form49.8

Lineup form51.7

Starting pitcher47.3

Bullpen available50.1

Opponent

ATL

Team form51.1

Lineup form51.5

Starting pitcher45.4

Bullpen available53.1

Values use the saved 0–100 rolling scale. They are inputs to the selection screen, not direct probability-point weights.

MLB Player Props

1 pitcher strikeout Pick, reviewed from the saved opponent lineup, workload projection, and prop price.

Pitcher prop

Joey Cantillo Under 5.5 strikeouts

NYM at CLE · 5 strikeouts · under 5.5

Betonlineag +110winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: Joey Cantillo Under 5.5 Ks

Joey Cantillo finished with 5 strikeouts, cashing the saved under 5.5 and adding +1.10 units to the prop record.

At Betonlineag +110, the model gave the under 58.5% against a 47.6% break-even mark, a +10.9-point gap. The saved projection was 5.1 strikeouts across 22.0 batters faced. The pitcher graded 54.2/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 52.7; the confirmed lineup carried a 22.1% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 0.1 strikeouts below the point projection. The ticket and the point projection told the same story. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability58.5%

Price break-even47.6%

Calculated difference+10.9 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Joey Cantillo vs. NYM

Projected Ks: 5.1
Actual Ks: 5

Pitcher value54.2

Opponent K matchup52.7

Lineup K rate22.1%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced22.0

Evidence quality89%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.42 Ks. Robustness: 76%.

What comes next

What we take forward

Each result can raise a useful question, but no single game rewrites the model. Any adjustment has to repeat across comparable frozen reads and survive a prospective test first.

Technical receipt

Fact pack: 7ddde0eb3b3ba7ea99265071bb7a18644b15c2828c9e4986dd1ac4a0cf673338

Decision receipts: mlb-current-decision:f6d8ac2637ce4b629d035be7571b8b12, mlb-current-decision:0719efe73ce295de02f42b79e0380e29, mlb-current-decision:d4621c48cfac0103af4dd10bf6d217c8, mlb-k-prop-c6c7686db16a0fc7114ebf15

Settlement receipts: mlb_live_settlement_9ba5985bf3dee5bf78e31931, mlb_live_settlement_d7da7a194a749fca68b3c58e, mlb_live_settlement_4e9d129ec8b6a8085d719b4d, 31999c6adb8faab94cf5b361d1fbdf62b136227fb2edf40d1b7effc5c44bb903