MLB Pitcher Prop Picks Recap for September 15, 2026: 3-4, -1.67 units

Postgame review

Decision coverage note

Decision coverage was incomplete in the pitcher strikeout lane (8 opportunities expired despite a prior decision opportunity) and the additional pitcher props lane (23 opportunities expired without a decision). This recap is complete for the 7 settled Picks that were actually recorded, but the slate does not meet full-lifecycle acceptance. No missing decision was reconstructed, and these incidents do not count as Picks or change the record above.

Postgame review

Won: Jacob Misiorowski Under 8.5 Ks

Jacob Misiorowski finished with 7 strikeouts, cashing the saved under 8.5 and adding +0.71 units to the prop record.

At DraftKings -141, the model gave the under 75.8% against a 58.5% break-even mark, a +17.3-point gap. The saved projection was 6.5 strikeouts across 22.6 batters faced. The pitcher graded 62.7/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 81.1; the confirmed lineup carried a 23.3% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 0.5 strikeouts above the point projection. The ticket and the point projection told the same story. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Postgame review

Won: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 7.5 Ks

Yoshinobu Yamamoto finished with 7 strikeouts, cashing the saved under 7.5 and adding +0.93 units to the prop record.

At FanDuel -108, the model gave the under 66.2% against a 51.9% break-even mark, a +14.3-point gap. The saved projection was 6.4 strikeouts across 25.1 batters faced. The pitcher graded 57.1/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 64.7; the confirmed lineup carried a 26.0% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 0.6 strikeouts above the point projection. The ticket and the point projection told the same story. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Postgame review

Lost: Martin Perez Over 3.5 Ks

Martin Perez finished with 2 strikeouts, leaving the saved over 3.5 on the wrong side of the line for a 1.00-unit loss.

At Fanatics Sportsbook +120, the model gave the over 62.1% against a 45.5% break-even mark, a +16.6-point gap. The saved projection was 4.5 strikeouts across 23.1 batters faced. The pitcher graded 49.7/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 35.0; the confirmed lineup carried a 20.3% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 2.5 strikeouts below the point projection. The projection supported the ticket, but the actual result crossed to the other side of the sportsbook line. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Postgame review

Lost: Kyle Freeland Over 2.5 Ks

Kyle Freeland finished with 1 strikeouts, leaving the saved over 2.5 on the wrong side of the line for a 1.00-unit loss.

At BetMGM -120, the model gave the over 82.7% against a 54.5% break-even mark, a +28.2-point gap. The saved projection was 4.9 strikeouts across 23.7 batters faced. The pitcher graded 47.7/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 40.7; the confirmed lineup carried a 21.8% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 3.9 strikeouts below the point projection. The projection supported the ticket, but the actual result crossed to the other side of the sportsbook line. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Postgame review

Won: Jack Perkins Over 14.5 pitching outs

Jack Perkins finished with 20 outs, cashing the saved over 14.5 at FanDuel -144 for +0.69 units.

The model priced the over at 90.8% versus a 59.0% break-even mark. The actual finished 0.1 outs below the saved 20.1 projection. The workload estimate was 30.0 opportunities, with pitcher rate 66.2% and opponent rate 66.3%.

Postgame review

Lost: Foster Griffin Over 15.5 pitching outs

Foster Griffin finished with 12 outs. That put the saved over 15.5 on the wrong side for a 1.00-unit loss.

The model priced the over at 57.3% versus a 43.5% break-even mark. The actual finished 4.2 outs below the saved 16.2 projection. The workload estimate was 23.2 opportunities, with pitcher rate 71.8% and opponent rate 67.3%.