Settled model recap · 2026-09-10

MLB Pitcher Prop Picks Recap for September 10, 2026: 0-2, -2.00 units

Review 2 pitcher-prop Picks from September 10, 2026 with the exact saved sportsbook prices, model probabilities, lineup or player values, final results, and plain-English postgame review.

Published after the saved Picks settled. The original prices and inputs stay attached.

Record0-2-0

Net units-2.00u

Game Picks0

Player Props2

One-minute recap

The card missed: 2 pitcher-prop Picks finished 0-2 for -2.00 units. The useful question is which assumptions failed, not how to explain the result after the fact.

Saved Picks and reviews

Open any Pick for the why

MLB Player Props

2 pitcher-prop Picks, covering strikeouts and reviewed from the saved workload, opponent, and price snapshots.

Pitcher prop

Zack Wheeler Under 6.5 strikeouts

HOU at PHI · 9 strikeouts · under 6.5

DraftKings +103lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Decision coverage note

Decision coverage was incomplete in the pitcher strikeout lane (1 opportunity expired despite a prior decision opportunity) and the additional pitcher props lane (2 opportunities expired without a decision). This recap is complete for the 2 settled Picks that were actually recorded, but the slate does not meet full-lifecycle acceptance. No missing decision was reconstructed, and these incidents do not count as Picks or change the record above.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability64.8%

Price break-even49.3%

Calculated difference+15.6 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Zack Wheeler vs. HOU

Projected Ks: 5.6
Actual Ks: 9

Pitcher value50.5

Opponent K matchup59.0

Lineup K rate21.3%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced23.0

Evidence quality91%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.55 Ks. Robustness: 78%.

Pitcher prop

Jacob deGrom Under 6.5 strikeouts

TEX at SEA · 12 strikeouts · under 6.5

DraftKings +101lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: Zack Wheeler Under 6.5 Ks

Zack Wheeler finished with 9 strikeouts, leaving the saved under 6.5 on the wrong side of the line for a 1.00-unit loss.

At DraftKings +103, the model gave the under 64.8% against a 49.3% break-even mark, a +15.6-point gap. The saved projection was 5.6 strikeouts across 23.0 batters faced. The pitcher graded 50.5/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 59.0; the confirmed lineup carried a 21.3% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 3.4 strikeouts above the point projection. The projection supported the ticket, but the actual result crossed to the other side of the sportsbook line. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability67.9%

Price break-even49.8%

Calculated difference+18.1 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Jacob deGrom vs. SEA

Projected Ks: 5.4
Actual Ks: 12

Pitcher value58.4

Opponent K matchup60.4

Lineup K rate21.6%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced21.9

Evidence quality91%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.50 Ks. Robustness: 78%.

Lost: Jacob deGrom Under 6.5 Ks

Jacob deGrom finished with 12 strikeouts, leaving the saved under 6.5 on the wrong side of the line for a 1.00-unit loss.

At DraftKings +101, the model gave the under 67.9% against a 49.8% break-even mark, a +18.1-point gap. The saved projection was 5.4 strikeouts across 21.9 batters faced. The pitcher graded 58.4/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 60.4; the confirmed lineup carried a 21.6% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 6.6 strikeouts above the point projection. The projection supported the ticket, but the actual result crossed to the other side of the sportsbook line. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

What comes next

What we take forward

Each result can raise a useful question, but no single game rewrites the model. Any adjustment has to repeat across comparable frozen reads and survive a prospective test first.

Technical receipt

Fact pack: f0e993925c84a7462b172a764ed0d04f41e7c4fdc585413f381fe9feb42370c5

Decision receipts: mlb-k-prop-becda14f68d7670bef3c2b52, mlb-k-prop-8095ec754a97fa4fd1ec1cf2

Settlement receipts: d8bd90ecf010edccff3a09fe22f3be8153345a667f30407172407bd7bf3dfdb5, 3308d255e6301e9fc0922ac0d68c3cc1bacac845d678521744868d9dd0f6016a