Settled model recap · 2026-09-09

MLB Pitcher Prop Picks Recap for September 9, 2026: 0-3, -3.00 units

Review 3 pitcher-prop Picks from September 9, 2026 with the exact saved sportsbook prices, model probabilities, lineup or player values, final results, and plain-English postgame review.

Published after the saved Picks settled. The original prices and inputs stay attached.

Record0-3-0

Net units-3.00u

Game Picks0

Player Props3

One-minute recap

The card missed: 3 pitcher-prop Picks finished 0-3 for -3.00 units. The useful question is which assumptions failed, not how to explain the result after the fact.

Saved Picks and reviews

Open any Pick for the why

MLB Player Props

3 pitcher-prop Picks, covering strikeouts, pitching outs and reviewed from the saved workload, opponent, and price snapshots.

Pitcher prop

Keider Montero Over 3.5 strikeouts

MIN at DET · 2 strikeouts · over 3.5

FanDuel +124lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Decision coverage note

Decision coverage was incomplete in the pitcher strikeout lane (12 opportunities expired despite a prior decision opportunity) and the additional pitcher props lane (18 opportunities expired without a decision). This recap is complete for the 3 settled Picks that were actually recorded, but the slate does not meet full-lifecycle acceptance. No missing decision was reconstructed, and these incidents do not count as Picks or change the record above.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability64.9%

Price break-even44.6%

Calculated difference+20.2 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Keider Montero vs. MIN

Projected Ks: 4.7
Actual Ks: 2

Pitcher value49.5

Opponent K matchup33.0

Lineup K rate20.2%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced24.5

Evidence quality91%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.32 Ks. Robustness: 78%.

Pitcher prop

Andre Pallante Over 15.5 pitching outs

STL at SF · 15 outs · over 15.5

Williamhill Us +110lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: Keider Montero Over 3.5 Ks

Keider Montero finished with 2 strikeouts, leaving the saved over 3.5 on the wrong side of the line for a 1.00-unit loss.

At FanDuel +124, the model gave the over 64.9% against a 44.6% break-even mark, a +20.2-point gap. The saved projection was 4.7 strikeouts across 24.5 batters faced. The pitcher graded 49.5/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 33.0; the confirmed lineup carried a 20.2% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 2.7 strikeouts below the point projection. The projection supported the ticket, but the actual result crossed to the other side of the sportsbook line. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability60.5%

Price break-even47.6%

Calculated difference+12.9 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Andre Pallante vs. SF

Projected outs: 16.4
Actual outs: 15

Projected opportunities23.6

Pitcher rate70.7%

Opponent rate68.4%

Stability93%

Evidence quality95%

Uncertaintystandard

Pitcher prop

Blade Tidwell Over 15.5 pitching outs

STL at SF · 12 outs · over 15.5

Bovada +110lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: Andre Pallante Over 15.5 pitching outs

Andre Pallante finished with 15 outs. That put the saved over 15.5 on the wrong side for a 1.00-unit loss.

The model priced the over at 60.5% versus a 47.6% break-even mark. The actual finished 1.4 outs below the saved 16.4 projection. The workload estimate was 23.6 opportunities, with pitcher rate 70.7% and opponent rate 68.4%.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability75.7%

Price break-even47.6%

Calculated difference+28.1 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Blade Tidwell vs. STL

Projected outs: 18.4
Actual outs: 12

Projected opportunities26.5

Pitcher rate70.7%

Opponent rate68.4%

Stability90%

Evidence quality95%

Uncertaintystandard

Lost: Blade Tidwell Over 15.5 pitching outs

Blade Tidwell finished with 12 outs. That put the saved over 15.5 on the wrong side for a 1.00-unit loss.

The model priced the over at 75.7% versus a 47.6% break-even mark. The actual finished 6.4 outs below the saved 18.4 projection. The workload estimate was 26.5 opportunities, with pitcher rate 70.7% and opponent rate 68.4%.

What comes next

What we take forward

Each result can raise a useful question, but no single game rewrites the model. Any adjustment has to repeat across comparable frozen reads and survive a prospective test first.

Technical receipt

Fact pack: 8305cff9c9b56749a353422fad2fc0a29d7f87c6e423ca0caab35f177ac637f7

Decision receipts: mlb-k-prop-8f2679eaac85a36387285b2a, mlb-added-prop-002d858c93eb1dc7c979a751, mlb-added-prop-cc7d90262151849f5482c5b5

Settlement receipts: fe642993c1245b6a7e02ab44c6f7f2e380b8553341dc895468a244e1605e2f17, e321de91d4ff73d370172a0cdf19680dd29b6de35cfef2110e28fd05a4d52666, f6df87629f2eb46cf3c164e613caff9ff8a727df4c913312253d1c5f83751b7d