Settled model recap · 2026-09-07

MLB Game & Prop Picks Recap for September 7, 2026: 2-3, -1.50 units

Review 1 game Pick and 4 pitcher-prop Picks from September 7, 2026 with the exact saved sportsbook prices, model probabilities, lineup or player values, final results, and plain-English postgame review.

Published after the saved Picks settled. The original prices and inputs stay attached.

Record2-3-0

Net units-1.50u

Game Picks1

Player Props4

One-minute recap

The card missed: 1 game Pick and 4 pitcher-prop Picks finished 2-3 for -1.50 units. The useful question is which assumptions failed, not how to explain the result after the fact.

Saved Picks and reviews

Open any Pick for the why

MLB Game Picks

1 game Pick, reviewed from the saved lineup, player, team, and moneyline snapshot.

Game Pick

LAD moneyline

CIN at LAD · CIN 3, LAD 6

BetRivers -159winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Decision coverage note

Decision coverage was incomplete in the pitcher strikeout lane (4 opportunities expired despite a prior decision opportunity) and the additional pitcher props lane (14 opportunities expired without a decision). This recap is complete for the 5 settled Picks that were actually recorded, but the slate does not meet full-lifecycle acceptance. No missing decision was reconstructed, and these incidents do not count as Picks or change the record above.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability61.7%

Price break-even61.4%

Calculated difference+0.3 pts

Selected side

LAD

Team form51.5

Lineup form50.9

Starting pitcher45.4

Bullpen available51.6

Opponent

CIN

Team form47.8

Lineup form51.2

Starting pitcher58.8

Bullpen available47.0

Values use the saved 0–100 rolling scale. They are inputs to the selection screen, not direct probability-point weights.

MLB Player Props

4 pitcher-prop Picks, covering strikeouts, pitching outs and reviewed from the saved workload, opponent, and price snapshots.

Pitcher prop

Jesus Luzardo Under 7.5 strikeouts

ATL at PHI · 12 strikeouts · under 7.5

DraftKings -145lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: LAD -159

LAD got the result in a CIN 3, LAD 6 final. The BetRivers -159 ticket added +0.63 units to the game-pick record.

The pregame case started with BetRivers LAD -159. We made the side 61.7%; the price needed 61.4%. That left 0.3 percentage points of room over the price's break-even mark. The strongest public counterweight was Elo home-win baseline, which pulled 0.30 probability points away from LAD. CIN carried the higher starter rating: Emmet Sheehan rated 45.4, compared with Chase Burns at 58.8. The two confirmed lineups graded about even: LAD 50.9, CIN 51.2. The top displayed hitters were Freddie Freeman (55.5) and Elly De La Cruz (57.9). LAD had the higher bullpen rating: LAD 51.6, CIN 47.0.

The result matched both the side and the saved price read. That is encouraging, not conclusive; the same profile still has to repeat before any live weight changes.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability69.5%

Price break-even59.2%

Calculated difference+10.3 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Jesus Luzardo vs. ATL

Projected Ks: 6.1
Actual Ks: 12

Pitcher value60.6

Opponent K matchup62.7

Lineup K rate22.0%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced24.5

Evidence quality92%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.70 Ks. Robustness: 80%.

Pitcher prop

Joe Ryan Over 3.5 strikeouts

MIN at DET · 7 strikeouts · over 3.5

FanDuel -115winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: Jesus Luzardo Under 7.5 Ks

Jesus Luzardo finished with 12 strikeouts, leaving the saved under 7.5 on the wrong side of the line for a 1.00-unit loss.

At DraftKings -145, the model gave the under 69.5% against a 59.2% break-even mark, a +10.3-point gap. The saved projection was 6.1 strikeouts across 24.5 batters faced. The pitcher graded 60.6/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 62.7; the confirmed lineup carried a 22.0% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 5.9 strikeouts above the point projection. The projection supported the ticket, but the actual result crossed to the other side of the sportsbook line. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability73.9%

Price break-even53.5%

Calculated difference+20.4 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Joe Ryan vs. DET

Projected Ks: 5.4
Actual Ks: 7

Pitcher value51.5

Opponent K matchup56.4

Lineup K rate22.1%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced22.5

Evidence quality90%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.49 Ks. Robustness: 76%.

Pitcher prop

Trevor Rogers Under 17.5 pitching outs

CLE at BAL · 22 outs · under 17.5

Bovada +135lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: Joe Ryan Over 3.5 Ks

Joe Ryan finished with 7 strikeouts, cashing the saved over 3.5 and adding +0.87 units to the prop record.

At FanDuel -115, the model gave the over 73.9% against a 53.5% break-even mark, a +20.4-point gap. The saved projection was 5.4 strikeouts across 22.5 batters faced. The pitcher graded 51.5/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 56.4; the confirmed lineup carried a 22.1% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 1.6 strikeouts above the point projection. The ticket and the point projection told the same story. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability64.0%

Price break-even42.6%

Calculated difference+21.4 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Trevor Rogers vs. CLE

Projected outs: 16.3
Actual outs: 22

Projected opportunities23.3

Pitcher rate70.9%

Opponent rate69.3%

Stability90%

Evidence quality95%

Uncertaintystandard

Pitcher prop

Logan Webb Under 17.5 pitching outs

STL at SF · 18 outs · under 17.5

Williamhill Us +136lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: Trevor Rogers Under 17.5 pitching outs

Trevor Rogers finished with 22 outs. That put the saved under 17.5 on the wrong side for a 1.00-unit loss.

The model priced the under at 64.0% versus a 42.6% break-even mark. The actual finished 5.7 outs above the saved 16.3 projection. The workload estimate was 23.3 opportunities, with pitcher rate 70.9% and opponent rate 69.3%.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability55.0%

Price break-even42.4%

Calculated difference+12.6 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Logan Webb vs. STL

Projected outs: 17.1
Actual outs: 18

Projected opportunities24.4

Pitcher rate72.1%

Opponent rate67.8%

Stability90%

Evidence quality95%

Uncertaintystandard

Lost: Logan Webb Under 17.5 pitching outs

Logan Webb finished with 18 outs. That put the saved under 17.5 on the wrong side for a 1.00-unit loss.

The model priced the under at 55.0% versus a 42.4% break-even mark. The actual finished 0.9 outs above the saved 17.1 projection. The workload estimate was 24.4 opportunities, with pitcher rate 72.1% and opponent rate 67.8%.

What comes next

What we take forward

Each result can raise a useful question, but no single game rewrites the model. Any adjustment has to repeat across comparable frozen reads and survive a prospective test first.

Technical receipt

Fact pack: 95a24fc71ba13b177089bc0372e6a686f030fc3455b82fba9981e4f90e95a846

Decision receipts: mlb-current-decision:c30ac497859c7ebe81fe24c4d3074f69, mlb-k-prop-8b0291bdd4b3870428359109, mlb-k-prop-95ed930ada5dc90992bb17a5, mlb-added-prop-7ad6579d46bac430ef5ca8d7, mlb-added-prop-7abdf10c4f2ad18f3953b9d2

Settlement receipts: mlb_live_settlement_9c1211b946c78faf36052f81, 3fbd0c8cd61fc88ce5e2fa64f7c19f14c72d44ecddc6916ed5175c943c5f3dda, 8315a432094af30a4c432d98eb32cd814da2a36e06b50ea8c4cc9da0270d3a04, 1f777974934b3edebfcad7c7f22e46542db8ca00e5979855315ab625268875ba, 4b63e13f768598eb99cc6d65e9115ab7e7fff360a287cd0d1ad58e062f0cd975