MLB Pitcher Prop Picks Recap for September 6, 2026: 2-4, -1.80 units

Postgame review

Decision coverage note

Decision coverage was incomplete in the pitcher strikeout lane (7 opportunities expired despite a prior decision opportunity) and the additional pitcher props lane (16 opportunities expired without a decision). This recap is complete for the 6 settled Picks that were actually recorded, but the slate does not meet full-lifecycle acceptance. No missing decision was reconstructed, and these incidents do not count as Picks or change the record above.

Postgame review

Lost: Bryan Woo Under 6.5 Ks

Bryan Woo finished with 9 strikeouts, leaving the saved under 6.5 on the wrong side of the line for a 1.00-unit loss.

At DraftKings -119, the model gave the under 67.4% against a 54.3% break-even mark, a +13.1-point gap. The saved projection was 5.4 strikeouts across 23.1 batters faced. The pitcher graded 53.1/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 54.4; the confirmed lineup carried a 22.7% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 3.6 strikeouts above the point projection. The projection supported the ticket, but the actual result crossed to the other side of the sportsbook line. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Postgame review

Won: Justin Wrobleski Over 4.5 Ks

Justin Wrobleski finished with 6 strikeouts, cashing the saved over 4.5 and adding +1.20 units to the prop record.

At Betonlineag +120, the model gave the over 61.3% against a 45.5% break-even mark, a +15.8-point gap. The saved projection was 5.6 strikeouts across 25.5 batters faced. The pitcher graded 44.2/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 46.7; the confirmed lineup carried a 23.3% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 0.4 strikeouts above the point projection. The ticket and the point projection told the same story. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Postgame review

Lost: Payton Tolle Under 17.5 pitching outs

Payton Tolle finished with 18 outs. That put the saved under 17.5 on the wrong side for a 1.00-unit loss.

The model priced the under at 62.6% versus a 50.0% break-even mark. The actual finished 1.6 outs above the saved 16.4 projection. The workload estimate was 23.1 opportunities, with pitcher rate 73.2% and opponent rate 69.7%.

Postgame review

Won: Randy Dobnak Over 15.5 pitching outs

Randy Dobnak finished with 18 outs, cashing the saved over 15.5 at Fanatics Sportsbook +100 for +1.00 units.

The model priced the over at 72.2% versus a 50.0% break-even mark. The actual finished 0.1 outs above the saved 17.9 projection. The workload estimate was 25.9 opportunities, with pitcher rate 68.4% and opponent rate 69.3%.

Postgame review

Lost: Tanner Gordon Over 15.5 pitching outs

Tanner Gordon finished with 14 outs. That put the saved over 15.5 on the wrong side for a 1.00-unit loss.

The model priced the over at 88.3% versus a 46.3% break-even mark. The actual finished 6.6 outs below the saved 20.6 projection. The workload estimate was 30.0 opportunities, with pitcher rate 68.2% and opponent rate 67.9%.