Settled model recap · 2026-09-05

MLB Game & Prop Picks Recap for September 5, 2026: 2-6, -4.15 units

Review 1 game Pick and 7 pitcher-prop Picks from September 5, 2026 with the exact saved sportsbook prices, model probabilities, lineup or player values, final results, and plain-English postgame review.

Published after the saved Picks settled. The original prices and inputs stay attached.

Record2-6-0

Net units-4.15u

Game Picks1

Player Props7

One-minute recap

The card missed: 1 game Pick and 7 pitcher-prop Picks finished 2-6 for -4.15 units. The useful question is which assumptions failed, not how to explain the result after the fact.

Saved Picks and reviews

Open any Pick for the why

MLB Game Picks

1 game Pick, reviewed from the saved lineup, player, team, and moneyline snapshot.

Game Pick

BAL moneyline

BOS at BAL · BOS 5, BAL 0

BetRivers +118lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: BAL +118

BAL did not get there in a BOS 5, BAL 0 final. The saved BetRivers +118 price cost 1.00 unit on the game-pick record.

The pregame case started with BetRivers BAL +118. We made the side 46.6%; the price needed 45.9%. That left 0.7 percentage points of room over the price's break-even mark. The strongest public counterweight was Long-run team strength, which pulled 0.47 probability points away from BAL. BOS carried the higher starter rating: Chris Bassitt rated 47.7, compared with Sonny Gray at 55.4. BOS had the higher confirmed-lineup rating: BAL 50.5, BOS 52.6. The top displayed hitters were Pete Alonso (59.0) and Mickey Gasper (62.3). The bullpen snapshot was essentially even: BAL 50.6, BOS 51.8.

The price case was there; the result was not. We will compare this starter, lineup, and bullpen profile with future frozen reads before deciding whether the miss was noise or a repeatable blind spot.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability46.6%

Price break-even45.9%

Calculated difference+0.7 pts

Selected side

BAL

Team form51.0

Lineup form50.5

Starting pitcher47.7

Bullpen available50.6

Opponent

BOS

Team form51.0

Lineup form52.6

Starting pitcher55.4

Bullpen available51.8

Values use the saved 0–100 rolling scale. They are inputs to the selection screen, not direct probability-point weights.

MLB Player Props

7 pitcher-prop Picks, covering strikeouts, pitching outs and reviewed from the saved workload, opponent, and price snapshots.

Pitcher prop

Zack Wheeler Under 6.5 strikeouts

ATL at PHI · 9 strikeouts · under 6.5

FanDuel -118lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: Zack Wheeler Under 6.5 Ks

Zack Wheeler finished with 9 strikeouts, leaving the saved under 6.5 on the wrong side of the line for a 1.00-unit loss.

At FanDuel -118, the model gave the under 65.2% against a 54.1% break-even mark, a +11.1-point gap. The saved projection was 5.6 strikeouts across 23.0 batters faced. The pitcher graded 49.9/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 58.5; the confirmed lineup carried a 21.4% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 3.4 strikeouts above the point projection. The projection supported the ticket, but the actual result crossed to the other side of the sportsbook line. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability65.2%

Price break-even54.1%

Calculated difference+11.1 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Zack Wheeler vs. ATL

Projected Ks: 5.6
Actual Ks: 9

Pitcher value49.9

Opponent K matchup58.5

Lineup K rate21.4%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced23.0

Evidence quality91%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.55 Ks. Robustness: 78%.

Pitcher prop

Cade Cavalli Under 5.5 strikeouts

WAS at LAD · 8 strikeouts · under 5.5

Bovada +115lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: Cade Cavalli Under 5.5 Ks

Cade Cavalli finished with 8 strikeouts, leaving the saved under 5.5 on the wrong side of the line for a 1.00-unit loss.

At Bovada +115, the model gave the under 56.8% against a 46.5% break-even mark, a +10.3-point gap. The saved projection was 5.2 strikeouts across 22.1 batters faced. The pitcher graded 55.5/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 54.6; the confirmed lineup carried a 20.6% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 2.8 strikeouts above the point projection. The projection supported the ticket, but the actual result crossed to the other side of the sportsbook line. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability56.8%

Price break-even46.5%

Calculated difference+10.3 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Cade Cavalli vs. LAD

Projected Ks: 5.2
Actual Ks: 8

Pitcher value55.5

Opponent K matchup54.6

Lineup K rate20.6%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced22.1

Evidence quality90%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.44 Ks. Robustness: 79%.

Pitcher prop

Drew Rasmussen Under 17.5 pitching outs

TB at TEX · 21 outs · under 17.5

Bovada +115lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: Drew Rasmussen Under 17.5 pitching outs

Drew Rasmussen finished with 21 outs. That put the saved under 17.5 on the wrong side for a 1.00-unit loss.

The model priced the under at 68.6% versus a 46.5% break-even mark. The actual finished 5.1 outs above the saved 15.9 projection. The workload estimate was 22.1 opportunities, with pitcher rate 76.3% and opponent rate 68.6%.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability68.6%

Price break-even46.5%

Calculated difference+22.1 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Drew Rasmussen vs. TEX

Projected outs: 15.9
Actual outs: 21

Projected opportunities22.1

Pitcher rate76.3%

Opponent rate68.6%

Stability93%

Evidence quality95%

Uncertaintystandard

Pitcher prop

Sonny Gray Under 17.5 pitching outs

BOS at BAL · 21 outs · under 17.5

BetMGM +110lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: Sonny Gray Under 17.5 pitching outs

Sonny Gray finished with 21 outs. That put the saved under 17.5 on the wrong side for a 1.00-unit loss.

The model priced the under at 61.0% versus a 47.6% break-even mark. The actual finished 4.4 outs above the saved 16.6 projection. The workload estimate was 23.7 opportunities, with pitcher rate 71.8% and opponent rate 68.1%.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability61.0%

Price break-even47.6%

Calculated difference+13.4 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Sonny Gray vs. BAL

Projected outs: 16.6
Actual outs: 21

Projected opportunities23.7

Pitcher rate71.8%

Opponent rate68.1%

Stability93%

Evidence quality95%

Uncertaintystandard

Pitcher prop

Chris Bassitt Over 15.5 pitching outs

BOS at BAL · 17 outs · over 15.5

FanDuel -112winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: Chris Bassitt Over 15.5 pitching outs

Chris Bassitt finished with 17 outs, cashing the saved over 15.5 at FanDuel -112 for +0.89 units.

The model priced the over at 64.0% versus a 52.8% break-even mark. The result landed almost exactly on the projection. The workload estimate was 25.0 opportunities, with pitcher rate 65.5% and opponent rate 68.9%.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability64.0%

Price break-even52.8%

Calculated difference+11.2 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Chris Bassitt vs. BOS

Projected outs: 17.0
Actual outs: 17

Projected opportunities25.0

Pitcher rate65.5%

Opponent rate68.9%

Stability90%

Evidence quality95%

Uncertaintystandard

Pitcher prop

Jacob deGrom Under 16.5 pitching outs

TB at TEX · 18 outs · under 16.5

Williamhill Us -106lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: Jacob deGrom Under 16.5 pitching outs

Jacob deGrom finished with 18 outs. That put the saved under 16.5 on the wrong side for a 1.00-unit loss.

The model priced the under at 65.8% versus a 51.5% break-even mark. The actual finished 2.8 outs above the saved 15.2 projection. The workload estimate was 21.8 opportunities, with pitcher rate 72.7% and opponent rate 66.3%.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability65.8%

Price break-even51.5%

Calculated difference+14.3 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Jacob deGrom vs. TB

Projected outs: 15.2
Actual outs: 18

Projected opportunities21.8

Pitcher rate72.7%

Opponent rate66.3%

Stability95%

Evidence quality95%

Uncertaintystandard

Pitcher prop

Matthew Liberatore Under 16.5 pitching outs

STL at COL · 13 outs · under 16.5

BetMGM -105winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: Matthew Liberatore Under 16.5 pitching outs

Matthew Liberatore finished with 13 outs, cashing the saved under 16.5 at BetMGM -105 for +0.95 units.

The model priced the under at 66.4% versus a 51.2% break-even mark. The actual finished 2.1 outs below the saved 15.1 projection. The workload estimate was 22.2 opportunities, with pitcher rate 67.1% and opponent rate 67.6%.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability66.4%

Price break-even51.2%

Calculated difference+15.2 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Matthew Liberatore vs. COL

Projected outs: 15.1
Actual outs: 13

Projected opportunities22.3

Pitcher rate67.1%

Opponent rate67.6%

Stability93%

Evidence quality95%

Uncertaintystandard

What comes next

What we take forward

Each result can raise a useful question, but no single game rewrites the model. Any adjustment has to repeat across comparable frozen reads and survive a prospective test first.

Technical receipt

Fact pack: 6ce7b161a1449d168c16cd1f85786edc4472f0273bc30c8a5bc71cda098299c6

Decision receipts: mlb-current-decision:8d85a60aad9258b484e90a151c3e6d55, mlb-k-prop-bcbc23d946fca6ef33303079, mlb-k-prop-9cb455b39da5e849b97b8f5d, mlb-added-prop-72dcc6a5aa94ece8992cec34, mlb-added-prop-9220a02d1f8a7841981205d5, mlb-added-prop-b278ee4fcbc3d39af47e85b7, mlb-added-prop-cdff8caace7beca8c1b15e42, mlb-added-prop-31ee20d7be687268b6307c87

Settlement receipts: mlb_live_settlement_94efa74376212bbb4401946e, 106ca9d7baccae5e4f4c18050d2ae6069296c0411079cd6e45b517410d266318, 60e13863fb9b2fcfc89cc526da41e4322db0af433d522465398bd910a9cb88d5, ccd72672bf9a0fcb1a233897153b83e5baa93f8781918579e87519f1f4b25ba9, ed5f7ee135d5e544fcc762e3304b98588f5d9fb9ab2714524ca0e27e40fe5aff, 40103a6bb6cfc5eff9177996eaf090327ca31e6da7751e062e79c20426f7d478, 8da29ce5be38a969cc0c34097b4cb0b4aa6423484a22fd4a66f521d1e0ef7827, 66c9b2ec38abde43ecfbea65b0de1ad3333b511d67476d7bd6e7b0d8d99563f7