Settled model recap · 2026-08-02

MLB Game & Prop Picks Recap for August 2, 2026: 4-2, +1.49 units

Review 1 game Pick and 5 pitcher-prop Picks from August 2, 2026 with the exact saved sportsbook prices, model probabilities, lineup or player values, final results, and plain-English postgame review.

Published after the saved Picks settled. The original prices and inputs stay attached.

Record4-2-0

Net units+1.49u

Game Picks1

Player Props5

One-minute recap

A strong result on the scoreboard: 1 game Pick and 5 pitcher-prop Picks finished 4-2 for +1.49 units. The review below separates the reads that matched their projections from the outcomes where the saved price did more of the work.

Saved Picks and reviews

Open any Pick for the why

MLB Game Picks

1 game Pick, reviewed from the saved lineup, player, team, and moneyline snapshot.

Game Pick

BAL moneyline

PHI at BAL · PHI 8, BAL 0

BetRivers +123lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: BAL +123

BAL did not get there in a PHI 8, BAL 0 final. The saved BetRivers +123 price cost 1.00 unit on the game-pick record.

The pregame case started with BetRivers BAL +123. We made the side 44.8%; the price needed 44.8%. The price was the concern: our estimate sat 0.1 points below break-even. It was logged as the day's first complete model read, not because the price showed value. The strongest public push toward BAL was Rolling team value, worth 0.09 probability points in the saved calculation. PHI carried the higher starter rating: Kyle Bradish rated 53.7, compared with Zack Wheeler at 60.3. The two confirmed lineups graded about even: BAL 50.1, PHI 51.4. The top displayed hitters were Pete Alonso (54.6) and Kyle Schwarber (56.3). The bullpen snapshot was essentially even: BAL 51.6, PHI 52.4.

The loss matched the pregame price warning. The next review is whether the first-complete-read policy should admit this below-break-even profile at all; one result will not change it automatically.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability44.8%

Price break-even44.8%

Calculated difference-0.1 pts

Selected side

BAL

Team form52.9

Lineup form50.1

Starting pitcher53.7

Bullpen available51.6

Opponent

PHI

Team form50.0

Lineup form51.4

Starting pitcher60.3

Bullpen available52.4

Values use the saved 0–100 rolling scale. They are inputs to the selection screen, not direct probability-point weights.

MLB Player Props

5 pitcher strikeout Picks, reviewed from the saved opponent lineup, workload projection, and prop price.

Pitcher prop

Zack Wheeler Under 7.5 strikeouts

PHI at BAL · 3 strikeouts · under 7.5

Fanatics Sportsbook -110winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: Zack Wheeler Under 7.5 Ks

Zack Wheeler finished with 3 strikeouts, cashing the saved under 7.5 and adding +0.91 units to the prop record.

At Fanatics Sportsbook -110, the model gave the under 70.1% against a 52.4% break-even mark, a +17.8-point gap. The saved projection was 6.1 strikeouts across 23.4 batters faced. The pitcher graded 60.3/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 67.8; the confirmed lineup carried a 24.2% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 3.1 strikeouts below the point projection. The ticket and the point projection told the same story. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability70.1%

Price break-even52.4%

Calculated difference+17.8 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Zack Wheeler vs. BAL

Projected Ks: 6.1
Actual Ks: 3

Pitcher value60.3

Opponent K matchup67.8

Lineup K rate24.2%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced23.4

Evidence quality88%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.69 Ks. Robustness: 76%.

Pitcher prop

Matthew Liberatore Over 3.5 strikeouts

STL at TOR · 7 strikeouts · over 3.5

Fanatics Sportsbook -140winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: Matthew Liberatore Over 3.5 Ks

Matthew Liberatore finished with 7 strikeouts, cashing the saved over 3.5 and adding +0.71 units to the prop record.

At Fanatics Sportsbook -140, the model gave the over 61.8% against a 58.3% break-even mark, a +3.5-point gap. The saved projection was 4.5 strikeouts across 22.2 batters faced. The pitcher graded 47.8/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 38.2; the confirmed lineup carried a 18.7% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 2.5 strikeouts above the point projection. The ticket and the point projection told the same story. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability61.8%

Price break-even58.3%

Calculated difference+3.5 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Matthew Liberatore vs. TOR

Projected Ks: 4.5
Actual Ks: 7

Pitcher value47.8

Opponent K matchup38.2

Lineup K rate18.7%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced22.2

Evidence quality89%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.26 Ks. Robustness: 76%.

Pitcher prop

Seth Lugo Over 4.5 strikeouts

KC at COL · 3 strikeouts · over 4.5

FanDuel +126lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: Seth Lugo Over 4.5 Ks

Seth Lugo finished with 3 strikeouts, leaving the saved over 4.5 on the wrong side of the line for a 1.00-unit loss.

At FanDuel +126, the model gave the over 51.2% against a 44.2% break-even mark, a +7.0-point gap. The saved projection was 4.9 strikeouts across 24.1 batters faced. The pitcher graded 46.4/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 39.5; the confirmed lineup carried a 21.9% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 1.9 strikeouts below the point projection. The projection supported the ticket, but the actual result crossed to the other side of the sportsbook line. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability51.2%

Price break-even44.2%

Calculated difference+7.0 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Seth Lugo vs. COL

Projected Ks: 4.9
Actual Ks: 3

Pitcher value46.4

Opponent K matchup39.5

Lineup K rate21.9%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced24.1

Evidence quality90%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.38 Ks. Robustness: 77%.

Pitcher prop

George Kirby Under 5.5 strikeouts

MIN at SEA · 3 strikeouts · under 5.5

DraftKings -109winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: George Kirby Under 5.5 Ks

George Kirby finished with 3 strikeouts, cashing the saved under 5.5 and adding +0.92 units to the prop record.

At DraftKings -109, the model gave the under 56.6% against a 52.2% break-even mark, a +4.4-point gap. The saved projection was 5.2 strikeouts across 25.0 batters faced. The pitcher graded 58.1/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 41.1; the confirmed lineup carried a 20.3% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 2.2 strikeouts below the point projection. The ticket and the point projection told the same story. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability56.6%

Price break-even52.2%

Calculated difference+4.4 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

George Kirby vs. MIN

Projected Ks: 5.2
Actual Ks: 3

Pitcher value58.1

Opponent K matchup41.1

Lineup K rate20.3%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced25.0

Evidence quality90%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.46 Ks. Robustness: 77%.

Pitcher prop

Taj Bradley Under 6.5 strikeouts

MIN at SEA · 2 strikeouts · under 6.5

BetMGM -105winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: Taj Bradley Under 6.5 Ks

Taj Bradley finished with 2 strikeouts, cashing the saved under 6.5 and adding +0.95 units to the prop record.

At BetMGM -105, the model gave the under 63.1% against a 51.2% break-even mark, a +11.9-point gap. The saved projection was 5.7 strikeouts across 23.8 batters faced. The pitcher graded 50.6/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 57.4; the confirmed lineup carried a 22.0% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 3.7 strikeouts below the point projection. The ticket and the point projection told the same story. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability63.1%

Price break-even51.2%

Calculated difference+11.9 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Taj Bradley vs. SEA

Projected Ks: 5.7
Actual Ks: 2

Pitcher value50.6

Opponent K matchup57.4

Lineup K rate22.0%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced23.8

Evidence quality90%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.59 Ks. Robustness: 77%.

What comes next

What we take forward

Each result can raise a useful question, but no single game rewrites the model. Any adjustment has to repeat across comparable frozen reads and survive a prospective test first.

Technical receipt

Fact pack: 043fe3746ffd6185194d26d58ab24c32e182ece0feacceef1c3bd4d9191901f5

Decision receipts: mlb-current-decision:effec6fd3313429652950cb624c0f26f, mlb-k-prop-f7fb1b2df786d447864db702, mlb-k-prop-aad7ea0082a7f82b9196c075, mlb-k-prop-efb02e70da89eeb2b40c18ec, mlb-k-prop-08eb3f27cd0bbe34a4fc1015, mlb-k-prop-7899539b21088a5cc323d56f

Settlement receipts: mlb_live_settlement_53be1fd9cdeec89e044c4453, 573b6202b100f982fb44063ca7e1dd13f6aee91a633002c24bc5427143a8a405, d1b88a0a37a881b661cc6987c31c1bdb5f714311ee12fcf6497054e30df06277, cb87efe2f50b760ba64ee85bf5d886e4ed661a11f4a03621689c6cee9663e8af, f6b7ae09ade0f155d310e50de4534089c17b6077f9750e7f1b0e496e818d6ddd, 53e3ea73c6aa8821fff2d6ac828d8ac2214d98dae37ac81cc4f5142cda9500c5