MLB model recap · 2026-08-01

MLB Game & Prop Picks Recap for August 1, 2026: 4-4, -0.68 units

Review 1 game Pick and 7 pitcher-prop Picks from August 1, 2026 with the exact saved sportsbook prices, model probabilities, lineup or player values, final results, and plain-English postgame review.

Tracked model result. Not betting advice.

Saved data, visualized

The model read at a glance

Record: 4-4-0
Flat-risk units: -0.68u

Game pick

TOR moneyline

FanDuel · -154

STL at TOR · STL 1, TOR 5

win

Model team baseline59.8%

Sportsbook break-even60.6%

Selected side

TOR

Team form43.5

Lineup form48.1

Starting pitcher52.4

Bullpen available53.9

Opponent

STL

Team form48.8

Lineup form49.2

Starting pitcher50.0

Bullpen available48.8

Role values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. They inform the selection-quality screen; they are not direct probability-point weights.

Pitcher prop

Drew Rasmussen Under 5.5 strikeouts

DraftKings · +123

CWS at TB · 10 actual Ks vs. under 5.5

loss

Model prop probability55.5%

Sportsbook break-even44.8%

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Drew Rasmussen vs. CWS

Projected Ks: 5.3
Actual Ks: 10

Pitcher value56.2

Opponent K matchup57.3

Lineup K rate23.2%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced21.9

Evidence quality89%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.47 Ks. Robustness: 76%.

Pitcher prop

Logan Gilbert Under 6.5 strikeouts

DraftKings · -126

MIN at SEA · 6 actual Ks vs. under 6.5

win

Model prop probability68.9%

Sportsbook break-even55.8%

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Logan Gilbert vs. MIN

Projected Ks: 5.3
Actual Ks: 6

Pitcher value58.6

Opponent K matchup50.1

Lineup K rate19.9%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced23.5

Evidence quality90%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.48 Ks. Robustness: 77%.

Pitcher prop

Cristopher Sanchez Under 6.5 strikeouts

BetRivers · +120

PHI at BAL · 11 actual Ks vs. under 6.5

loss

Model prop probability51.4%

Sportsbook break-even45.5%

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Cristopher Sanchez vs. BAL

Projected Ks: 6.5
Actual Ks: 11

Pitcher value59.1

Opponent K matchup64.1

Lineup K rate24.8%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced25.7

Evidence quality88%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.80 Ks. Robustness: 78%.

Pitcher prop

Luinder Avila Over 3.5 strikeouts

FanDuel · -142

KC at COL · 2 actual Ks vs. over 3.5

loss

Model prop probability76.4%

Sportsbook break-even58.7%

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Luinder Avila vs. COL

Projected Ks: 5.7
Actual Ks: 2

Pitcher value48.8

Opponent K matchup45.8

Lineup K rate23.0%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced26.1

Evidence quality87%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.65 Ks. Robustness: 71%.

Pitcher prop

Ryan Feltner Over 3.5 strikeouts

FanDuel · -142

KC at COL · 3 actual Ks vs. over 3.5

loss

Model prop probability61.7%

Sportsbook break-even58.7%

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Ryan Feltner vs. KC

Projected Ks: 4.5
Actual Ks: 3

Pitcher value39.4

Opponent K matchup42.7

Lineup K rate23.1%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced21.3

Evidence quality87%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.26 Ks. Robustness: 72%.

Pitcher prop

Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 6.5 strikeouts

DraftKings · -103

BOS at LAD · 3 actual Ks vs. under 6.5

win

Model prop probability64.9%

Sportsbook break-even50.7%

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. BOS

Projected Ks: 5.6
Actual Ks: 3

Pitcher value57.4

Opponent K matchup49.1

Lineup K rate21.0%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced25.0

Evidence quality89%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.56 Ks. Robustness: 77%.

Pitcher prop

Jack Perkins Over 4.5 strikeouts

BetMGM · -110

DET at OAK · 9 actual Ks vs. over 4.5

win

Model prop probability77.6%

Sportsbook break-even52.4%

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Jack Perkins vs. DET

Projected Ks: 7.1
Actual Ks: 9

Pitcher value45.6

Opponent K matchup55.2

Lineup K rate22.0%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced30.0

Evidence quality86%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 3.03 Ks. Robustness: 70%.

One-minute recap

The card finished 4-4 for -0.68 units. The result was mixed, so the individual price and projection reads matter more than the headline record.

MLB Game Picks

1 game Pick, reviewed from the saved lineup, player, team, and moneyline snapshot.

Won: TOR -154

TOR got the result in a STL 1, TOR 5 final. The FanDuel -154 ticket added +0.65 units to the game-pick record.

The pregame case started with FanDuel TOR -154. We made the side 59.8%; the price needed 60.6%. The price was the concern: our estimate sat 0.8 points below break-even. It was logged as the day's first complete model read, not because the price showed value. The strongest public counterweight was Long-run team strength, which pulled 0.42 probability points away from TOR. TOR carried the higher starter rating: Kevin Gausman rated 52.4, compared with Quinn Mathews at 50.0. The two confirmed lineups graded about even: TOR 48.1, STL 49.2. The top displayed hitters were Luis Urias (51.0) and Jordan Walker (54.5). TOR had the higher bullpen rating: TOR 53.9, STL 48.8.

The side won, but the price concern remains. A winning result does not turn a below-break-even calculation into value; this daily-card profile stays in review and the live weights stay unchanged.

MLB Pitcher Prop Picks

7 pitcher strikeout Picks, reviewed from the saved opponent lineup, workload projection, and prop price.

Lost: Drew Rasmussen Under 5.5 Ks

Drew Rasmussen finished with 10 strikeouts, leaving the saved under 5.5 on the wrong side of the line for a 1.00-unit loss.

At DraftKings +123, the model gave the under 55.5% against a 44.8% break-even mark, a +10.7-point gap. The saved projection was 5.3 strikeouts across 21.9 batters faced. The pitcher graded 56.2/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 57.3; the confirmed lineup carried a 23.2% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 4.7 strikeouts above the point projection. The projection supported the ticket, but the actual result crossed to the other side of the sportsbook line. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Won: Logan Gilbert Under 6.5 Ks

Logan Gilbert finished with 6 strikeouts, cashing the saved under 6.5 and adding +0.79 units to the prop record.

At DraftKings -126, the model gave the under 68.9% against a 55.8% break-even mark, a +13.2-point gap. The saved projection was 5.3 strikeouts across 23.5 batters faced. The pitcher graded 58.6/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 50.1; the confirmed lineup carried a 19.9% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 0.7 strikeouts above the point projection. The ticket and the point projection told the same story. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Lost: Cristopher Sanchez Under 6.5 Ks

Cristopher Sanchez finished with 11 strikeouts, leaving the saved under 6.5 on the wrong side of the line for a 1.00-unit loss.

At BetRivers +120, the model gave the under 51.4% against a 45.5% break-even mark, a +6.0-point gap. The saved projection was 6.5 strikeouts across 25.7 batters faced. The pitcher graded 59.1/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 64.1; the confirmed lineup carried a 24.8% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 4.5 strikeouts above the point projection. The projection supported the ticket, but the actual result crossed to the other side of the sportsbook line. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Lost: Luinder Avila Over 3.5 Ks

Luinder Avila finished with 2 strikeouts, leaving the saved over 3.5 on the wrong side of the line for a 1.00-unit loss.

At FanDuel -142, the model gave the over 76.4% against a 58.7% break-even mark, a +17.8-point gap. The saved projection was 5.7 strikeouts across 26.1 batters faced. The pitcher graded 48.8/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 45.8; the confirmed lineup carried a 23.0% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 3.7 strikeouts below the point projection. The projection supported the ticket, but the actual result crossed to the other side of the sportsbook line. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Lost: Ryan Feltner Over 3.5 Ks

Ryan Feltner finished with 3 strikeouts, leaving the saved over 3.5 on the wrong side of the line for a 1.00-unit loss.

At FanDuel -142, the model gave the over 61.7% against a 58.7% break-even mark, a +3.0-point gap. The saved projection was 4.5 strikeouts across 21.2 batters faced. The pitcher graded 39.4/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 42.7; the confirmed lineup carried a 23.1% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 1.5 strikeouts below the point projection. The projection supported the ticket, but the actual result crossed to the other side of the sportsbook line. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Won: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 6.5 Ks

Yoshinobu Yamamoto finished with 3 strikeouts, cashing the saved under 6.5 and adding +0.97 units to the prop record.

At DraftKings -103, the model gave the under 64.9% against a 50.7% break-even mark, a +14.1-point gap. The saved projection was 5.6 strikeouts across 25.0 batters faced. The pitcher graded 57.4/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 49.1; the confirmed lineup carried a 21.0% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 2.6 strikeouts below the point projection. The ticket and the point projection told the same story. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Won: Jack Perkins Over 4.5 Ks

Jack Perkins finished with 9 strikeouts, cashing the saved over 4.5 and adding +0.91 units to the prop record.

At BetMGM -110, the model gave the over 77.6% against a 52.4% break-even mark, a +25.3-point gap. The saved projection was 7.1 strikeouts across 30.0 batters faced. The pitcher graded 45.6/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 55.2; the confirmed lineup carried a 22.0% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 1.9 strikeouts above the point projection. The ticket and the point projection told the same story. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

What we take forward

Each result can raise a useful question, but no single game rewrites the model. Any adjustment has to repeat across comparable frozen reads and survive a prospective test first.

Fact pack: 756c64a8533fe600703dc15a091cedeeace6710958ff29d0524eda9d735f7ef2