Settled model recap · 2026-09-13
MLB Pitcher Prop Picks Recap for September 13, 2026: 1-1, -0.31 units
Review 2 pitcher-prop Picks from September 13, 2026 with the exact saved sportsbook prices, model probabilities, lineup or player values, final results, and plain-English postgame review.
Published after the saved Picks settled. The original prices and inputs stay attached.
One-minute recap
One-minute recap
The card finished 1-1 for -0.31 units. The result was mixed, so the individual price and projection reads matter more than the headline record.
Saved Picks and reviews
Open any Pick for the why
MLB Player Props
2 pitcher-prop Picks, covering strikeouts and reviewed from the saved workload, opponent, and price snapshots.
Pitcher propDylan Cease Under 8.5 strikeouts
BAL at TOR · 9 strikeouts · under 8.5
DraftKings -148lossSee the review ↓
Dylan Cease Under 8.5 strikeouts
BAL at TOR · 9 strikeouts · under 8.5
Postgame review
Decision coverage note
Decision coverage was incomplete in the pitcher strikeout lane (5 opportunities expired despite a prior decision opportunity) and the additional pitcher props lane (18 opportunities expired without a decision). This recap is complete for the 2 settled Picks that were actually recorded, but the slate does not meet full-lifecycle acceptance. No missing decision was reconstructed, and these incidents do not count as Picks or change the record above.
Saved pregame inputs
Frozen pitcher-prop inputs
Dylan Cease vs. BAL
- Projected Ks
- 6.9
- Actual Ks
- 9
Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.88 Ks. Robustness: 80%.
Pitcher propChase Burns Over 3.5 strikeouts
CIN at MIL · 5 strikeouts · over 3.5
DraftKings -145winSee the review ↓
Chase Burns Over 3.5 strikeouts
CIN at MIL · 5 strikeouts · over 3.5
Postgame review
Lost: Dylan Cease Under 8.5 Ks
Dylan Cease finished with 9 strikeouts, leaving the saved under 8.5 on the wrong side of the line for a 1.00-unit loss.
At DraftKings -148, the model gave the under 71.5% against a 59.7% break-even mark, a +11.8-point gap. The saved projection was 6.9 strikeouts across 23.8 batters faced. The pitcher graded 61.3/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 81.5; the confirmed lineup carried a 25.7% strikeout rate.
The actual result finished 2.1 strikeouts above the point projection. The projection supported the ticket, but the actual result crossed to the other side of the sportsbook line. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.
Saved pregame inputs
Frozen pitcher-prop inputs
Chase Burns vs. MIL
- Projected Ks
- 5.8
- Actual Ks
- 5
Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.62 Ks. Robustness: 78%.
Won: Chase Burns Over 3.5 Ks
Chase Burns finished with 5 strikeouts, cashing the saved over 3.5 and adding +0.69 units to the prop record.
At DraftKings -145, the model gave the over 79.1% against a 59.2% break-even mark, a +19.9-point gap. The saved projection was 5.8 strikeouts across 22.6 batters faced. The pitcher graded 59.6/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 66.4; the confirmed lineup carried a 24.4% strikeout rate.
The actual result finished 0.8 strikeouts below the point projection. The ticket and the point projection told the same story. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.
What comes next
What we take forward
Each result can raise a useful question, but no single game rewrites the model. Any adjustment has to repeat across comparable frozen reads and survive a prospective test first.
Technical receipt
Fact pack: b12ca6804b4b242d2ebda43b228841e0870e1eee06982d343d1fa3229da3c573
Decision receipts: mlb-k-prop-64f6f148fe2ae9f3b2e975a9, mlb-k-prop-7a5ced38830f9e556a921f77
Settlement receipts: f8241717ad9db4c8f711e2f107ea4f31386cc8f0a38f438b757c0858c88a33e6, 4c8c15e1f412ce4cb0e2b111e9c35ba2608da1a3297f1528781d2f38f555189a