Settled model recap · 2026-09-02

MLB Game & Prop Picks Recap for September 2, 2026: 1-3, -1.65 units

Review 1 game Pick and 3 pitcher-prop Picks from September 2, 2026 with the exact saved sportsbook prices, model probabilities, lineup or player values, final results, and plain-English postgame review.

Published after the saved Picks settled. The original prices and inputs stay attached.

Record1-3-0

Net units-1.65u

Game Picks1

Player Props3

One-minute recap

The card missed: 1 game Pick and 3 pitcher-prop Picks finished 1-3 for -1.65 units. The useful question is which assumptions failed, not how to explain the result after the fact.

Saved Picks and reviews

Open any Pick for the why

MLB Game Picks

1 game Pick, reviewed from the saved lineup, player, team, and moneyline snapshot.

Game Pick

SEA moneyline

SEA at BOS · SEA 8, BOS 3

Williamhill Us +135winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Decision coverage note

Decision coverage was incomplete in the pitcher strikeout lane (16 opportunities expired despite a prior decision opportunity) and the additional pitcher props lane (20 opportunities expired without a decision). This recap is complete for the 4 settled Picks that were actually recorded, but the slate does not meet full-lifecycle acceptance. No missing decision was reconstructed, and these incidents do not count as Picks or change the record above.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability42.8%

Price break-even42.6%

Calculated difference+0.3 pts

Selected side

SEA

Team form42.2

Lineup form49.2

Starting pitcher44.4

Bullpen available48.0

Opponent

BOS

Team form52.8

Lineup form52.6

Starting pitcher49.0

Bullpen available52.3

Values use the saved 0–100 rolling scale. They are inputs to the selection screen, not direct probability-point weights.

MLB Player Props

3 pitcher-prop Picks, covering strikeouts, pitching outs and reviewed from the saved workload, opponent, and price snapshots.

Pitcher prop

Cam Schlittler Under 7.5 strikeouts

NYY at LAA · 9 strikeouts · under 7.5

BetRivers +115lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: SEA +135

SEA got the result in a SEA 8, BOS 3 final. The Williamhill Us +135 ticket added +1.35 units to the game-pick record.

The pregame case started with Williamhill Us SEA +135. We made the side 42.8%; the price needed 42.6%. That left 0.3 percentage points of room over the price's break-even mark. The strongest public counterweight was Long-run team strength, which pulled 0.95 probability points away from SEA. BOS carried the higher starter rating: Bryce Miller rated 44.4, compared with Patrick Sandoval at 49.0. BOS had the higher confirmed-lineup rating: SEA 49.2, BOS 52.6. The top displayed hitters were Randy Arozarena (56.4) and Mickey Gasper (62.4). BOS had the higher bullpen rating: SEA 48.0, BOS 52.3.

The result matched both the side and the saved price read. That is encouraging, not conclusive; the same profile still has to repeat before any live weight changes.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability66.9%

Price break-even46.5%

Calculated difference+20.4 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Cam Schlittler vs. LAA

Projected Ks: 6.3
Actual Ks: 9

Pitcher value59.9

Opponent K matchup75.0

Lineup K rate26.0%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced23.0

Evidence quality91%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.75 Ks. Robustness: 79%.

Pitcher prop

Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 6.5 strikeouts

STL at LAD · 8 strikeouts · under 6.5

DraftKings +111lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: Cam Schlittler Under 7.5 Ks

Cam Schlittler finished with 9 strikeouts, leaving the saved under 7.5 on the wrong side of the line for a 1.00-unit loss.

At BetRivers +115, the model gave the under 66.9% against a 46.5% break-even mark, a +20.4-point gap. The saved projection was 6.3 strikeouts across 23.0 batters faced. The pitcher graded 59.9/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 75.0; the confirmed lineup carried a 26.0% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 2.7 strikeouts above the point projection. The projection supported the ticket, but the actual result crossed to the other side of the sportsbook line. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability63.7%

Price break-even47.4%

Calculated difference+16.3 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. STL

Projected Ks: 5.7
Actual Ks: 8

Pitcher value58.0

Opponent K matchup50.7

Lineup K rate21.0%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced25.0

Evidence quality91%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.58 Ks. Robustness: 79%.

Pitcher prop

Trevor Rogers Under 17.5 pitching outs

BAL at COL · 20 outs · under 17.5

FanDuel +104lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 6.5 Ks

Yoshinobu Yamamoto finished with 8 strikeouts, leaving the saved under 6.5 on the wrong side of the line for a 1.00-unit loss.

At DraftKings +111, the model gave the under 63.7% against a 47.4% break-even mark, a +16.3-point gap. The saved projection was 5.7 strikeouts across 25.0 batters faced. The pitcher graded 58.0/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 50.7; the confirmed lineup carried a 21.0% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 2.3 strikeouts above the point projection. The projection supported the ticket, but the actual result crossed to the other side of the sportsbook line. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability66.1%

Price break-even49.0%

Calculated difference+17.1 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Trevor Rogers vs. COL

Projected outs: 16.1
Actual outs: 20

Projected opportunities23.2

Pitcher rate70.6%

Opponent rate68.2%

Stability93%

Evidence quality95%

Uncertaintystandard

Lost: Trevor Rogers Under 17.5 pitching outs

Trevor Rogers finished with 20 outs. That put the saved under 17.5 on the wrong side for a 1.00-unit loss.

The model priced the under at 66.1% versus a 49.0% break-even mark. The actual finished 3.9 outs above the saved 16.1 projection. The workload estimate was 23.2 opportunities, with pitcher rate 70.6% and opponent rate 68.2%.

What comes next

What we take forward

Each result can raise a useful question, but no single game rewrites the model. Any adjustment has to repeat across comparable frozen reads and survive a prospective test first.

Technical receipt

Fact pack: bce7abcaf633e4f7fc7da1769115db18fd36b4b89226fd3ee1a212ee130f6c6e

Decision receipts: mlb-current-decision:4da2ceb962e497e7f6f86155bf296e79, mlb-k-prop-49d45a92f20910e47e7bbf04, mlb-k-prop-c96e2853a7e0e5d08043fff4, mlb-added-prop-6865021d44c397236af9c707

Settlement receipts: mlb_live_settlement_2aa25e26e8322ed59d532407, 98da0d41460fde7c65766f020862ae93252cf994eb900c19909a99574c16518e, 0facad60c5ae523cfb0feef1af6e7cb6085b634d83ed7e4f7b49f0ff059ed2ed, 89adb61167190b8ca9771abf5bacd66a3b890dff6f94e50b00c2a8c3f79bbb0f