Settled model recap · 2026-08-31

MLB Pitcher Prop Picks Recap for August 31, 2026: 1-1, -0.05 units

Review 2 pitcher-prop Picks from August 31, 2026 with the exact saved sportsbook prices, model probabilities, lineup or player values, final results, and plain-English postgame review.

Published after the saved Picks settled. The original prices and inputs stay attached.

Record1-1-0

Net units-0.05u

Game Picks0

Player Props2

One-minute recap

The card finished 1-1 for -0.05 units. The result was mixed, so the individual price and projection reads matter more than the headline record.

Saved Picks and reviews

Open any Pick for the why

MLB Player Props

2 pitcher-prop Picks, covering strikeouts, pitching outs and reviewed from the saved workload, opponent, and price snapshots.

Pitcher prop

Payton Tolle Under 6.5 strikeouts

SEA at BOS · 6 strikeouts · under 6.5

BetMGM -105winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: Payton Tolle Under 6.5 Ks

Payton Tolle finished with 6 strikeouts, cashing the saved under 6.5 and adding +0.95 units to the prop record.

At BetMGM -105, the model gave the under 65.8% against a 51.2% break-even mark, a +14.5-point gap. The saved projection was 5.5 strikeouts across 23.0 batters faced. The pitcher graded 56.9/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 57.3; the confirmed lineup carried a 21.8% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 0.5 strikeouts above the point projection. The ticket and the point projection told the same story. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability65.8%

Price break-even51.2%

Calculated difference+14.5 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Payton Tolle vs. SEA

Projected Ks: 5.5
Actual Ks: 6

Pitcher value56.9

Opponent K matchup57.3

Lineup K rate21.8%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced23.0

Evidence quality90%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.54 Ks. Robustness: 78%.

Pitcher prop

Taj Bradley Under 17.5 pitching outs

DET at MIN · 21 outs · under 17.5

FanDuel +110lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: Taj Bradley Under 17.5 pitching outs

Taj Bradley finished with 21 outs. That put the saved under 17.5 on the wrong side for a 1.00-unit loss.

The model priced the under at 61.7% versus a 47.6% break-even mark. The actual finished 4.5 outs above the saved 16.5 projection. The workload estimate was 23.9 opportunities, with pitcher rate 70.2% and opponent rate 67.6%.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability61.7%

Price break-even47.6%

Calculated difference+14.1 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Taj Bradley vs. DET

Projected outs: 16.5
Actual outs: 21

Projected opportunities23.9

Pitcher rate70.2%

Opponent rate67.6%

Stability95%

Evidence quality95%

Uncertaintystandard

What comes next

What we take forward

Each result can raise a useful question, but no single game rewrites the model. Any adjustment has to repeat across comparable frozen reads and survive a prospective test first.

Technical receipt

Fact pack: 0d09b634a4fd5c498e53628fc071c40003aff02f0cfa2f6eb42cc4729eb377c9

Decision receipts: mlb-k-prop-009a9d8012a96a8de0b621a2, mlb-added-prop-874716ee9122f30ce46f997f

Settlement receipts: d2ab9c8e519b8065c6ff00cb7223e33ac74dd61cc89b8024a1de2ff9a08f2d4f, 9236bcf022dc000f2d0910c114f00231d074362b5444d7d4c2d3e5178c1cb5ff