Settled model recap · 2026-08-29
MLB Game & Prop Picks Recap for August 29, 2026: 0-2, -2.00 units
Review 1 game Pick and 1 pitcher-prop Pick from August 29, 2026 with the exact saved sportsbook prices, model probabilities, lineup or player values, final results, and plain-English postgame review.
Published after the saved Picks settled. The original prices and inputs stay attached.
One-minute recap
One-minute recap
The card missed: 1 game Pick and 1 pitcher-prop Pick finished 0-2 for -2.00 units. The useful question is which assumptions failed, not how to explain the result after the fact.
Saved Picks and reviews
Open any Pick for the why
MLB Game Picks
1 game Pick, reviewed from the saved lineup, player, team, and moneyline snapshot.
Game PickBOS moneyline
BOS at NYY · BOS 2, NYY 9
BetRivers +133lossSee the review ↓
BOS moneyline
BOS at NYY · BOS 2, NYY 9
Postgame review
Lost: BOS +133
BOS did not get there in a BOS 2, NYY 9 final. The saved BetRivers +133 price cost 1.00 unit on the game-pick record.
The pregame case started with BetRivers BOS +133. We made the side 43.5%; the price needed 42.9%. That left 0.6 percentage points of room over the price's break-even mark. The strongest public push toward BOS was Long-run team strength, worth 0.32 probability points in the saved calculation. NYY carried the higher starter rating: Alec Gamboa rated 51.2, compared with Max Fried at 59.3. BOS had the higher confirmed-lineup rating: BOS 52.7, NYY 50.5. The top displayed hitters were Willson Contreras (58.5) and Luis Garcia Jr. (59.7). The bullpen snapshot was essentially even: BOS 54.5, NYY 52.5.
The price case was there; the result was not. We will compare this starter, lineup, and bullpen profile with future frozen reads before deciding whether the miss was noise or a repeatable blind spot.
Saved pregame inputs
Selected side
BOS
Opponent
NYY
Values use the saved 0–100 rolling scale. They are inputs to the selection screen, not direct probability-point weights.
MLB Player Props
1 pitcher-prop Pick, covering strikeouts and reviewed from the saved workload, opponent, and price snapshots.
Pitcher propKeider Montero Over 3.5 strikeouts
LAD at DET · 3 strikeouts · over 3.5
Betonlineag +104lossSee the review ↓
Keider Montero Over 3.5 strikeouts
LAD at DET · 3 strikeouts · over 3.5
Postgame review
Lost: Keider Montero Over 3.5 Ks
Keider Montero finished with 3 strikeouts, leaving the saved over 3.5 on the wrong side of the line for a 1.00-unit loss.
At Betonlineag +104, the model gave the over 67.7% against a 49.0% break-even mark, a +18.7-point gap. The saved projection was 4.9 strikeouts across 24.8 batters faced. The pitcher graded 48.7/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 36.0; the confirmed lineup carried a 21.3% strikeout rate.
The actual result finished 1.9 strikeouts below the point projection. The projection supported the ticket, but the actual result crossed to the other side of the sportsbook line. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.
Saved pregame inputs
Frozen pitcher-prop inputs
Keider Montero vs. LAD
- Projected Ks
- 4.9
- Actual Ks
- 3
Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.37 Ks. Robustness: 77%.
What comes next
What we take forward
Each result can raise a useful question, but no single game rewrites the model. Any adjustment has to repeat across comparable frozen reads and survive a prospective test first.
Technical receipt
Fact pack: 6e05bb91c8ab14a381f1f747b6d77b878511f637ac3f1d1d6c349ab6b9123358
Decision receipts: mlb-current-decision:7c7a4a6799799192bce72667ac88643f, mlb-k-prop-af6359939bca8bb97f77d58c
Settlement receipts: mlb_live_settlement_af206da0a0f68c7a30daa51c, 9b326d44ce2d669c867483e342442d5c97506686555327509694a1eb4da1c0ee