Settled model recap · 2026-08-26

MLB Game & Prop Picks Recap for August 26, 2026: 2-1, +1.58 units

Review 1 game Pick and 2 pitcher-prop Picks from August 26, 2026 with the exact saved sportsbook prices, model probabilities, lineup or player values, final results, and plain-English postgame review.

Published after the saved Picks settled. The original prices and inputs stay attached.

Record2-1-0

Net units+1.58u

Game Picks1

Player Props2

One-minute recap

A strong result on the scoreboard: 1 game Pick and 2 pitcher-prop Picks finished 2-1 for +1.58 units. The review below separates the reads that matched their projections from the outcomes where the saved price did more of the work.

Saved Picks and reviews

Open any Pick for the why

MLB Game Picks

1 game Pick, reviewed from the saved lineup, player, team, and moneyline snapshot.

Game Pick

NYM moneyline

MIL at NYM · MIL 8, NYM 1

DraftKings +144lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: NYM +144

NYM did not get there in a MIL 8, NYM 1 final. The saved DraftKings +144 price cost 1.00 unit on the game-pick record.

The pregame case started with DraftKings NYM +144. We made the side 41.8%; the price needed 41.0%. That left 0.8 percentage points of room over the price's break-even mark. The strongest public counterweight was Long-run team strength, which pulled 0.44 probability points away from NYM. MIL carried the higher starter rating: Robert Stock rated 50.5, compared with Dustin May at 54.6. The two confirmed lineups graded about even: NYM 50.6, MIL 50.0. The top displayed hitters were Carson Benge (55.8) and Andrew Vaughn (55.0). MIL had the higher bullpen rating: NYM 49.8, MIL 53.9.

The price case was there; the result was not. We will compare this starter, lineup, and bullpen profile with future frozen reads before deciding whether the miss was noise or a repeatable blind spot.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability41.8%

Price break-even41.0%

Calculated difference+0.8 pts

Selected side

NYM

Team form51.8

Lineup form50.6

Starting pitcher50.5

Bullpen available49.8

Opponent

MIL

Team form55.3

Lineup form50.0

Starting pitcher54.6

Bullpen available53.9

Values use the saved 0–100 rolling scale. They are inputs to the selection screen, not direct probability-point weights.

MLB Player Props

2 pitcher-prop Picks, covering pitching outs and reviewed from the saved workload, opponent, and price snapshots.

Pitcher prop

Sonny Gray Under 17.5 pitching outs

BOS at MIA · 15 outs · under 17.5

Bovada +160winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: Sonny Gray Under 17.5 pitching outs

Sonny Gray finished with 15 outs, cashing the saved under 17.5 at Bovada +160 for +1.60 units.

The model priced the under at 61.4% versus a 38.5% break-even mark. The actual finished 1.5 outs below the saved 16.5 projection. The workload estimate was 23.7 opportunities, with pitcher rate 72.1% and opponent rate 67.5%.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability61.4%

Price break-even38.5%

Calculated difference+22.9 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Sonny Gray vs. MIA

Projected outs: 16.5
Actual outs: 15

Projected opportunities23.7

Pitcher rate72.1%

Opponent rate67.5%

Stability93%

Evidence quality95%

Uncertaintystandard

Pitcher prop

Tanner Gordon Over 16.5 pitching outs

COL at WAS · 21 outs · over 16.5

FanDuel -102winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: Tanner Gordon Over 16.5 pitching outs

Tanner Gordon finished with 21 outs, cashing the saved over 16.5 at FanDuel -102 for +0.98 units.

The model priced the over at 83.3% versus a 50.5% break-even mark. The actual finished 0.4 outs above the saved 20.6 projection. The workload estimate was 30.0 opportunities, with pitcher rate 66.9% and opponent rate 69.6%.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability83.3%

Price break-even50.5%

Calculated difference+32.8 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Tanner Gordon vs. WAS

Projected outs: 20.6
Actual outs: 21

Projected opportunities30.0

Pitcher rate66.9%

Opponent rate69.6%

Stability90%

Evidence quality95%

Uncertaintystandard

What comes next

What we take forward

Each result can raise a useful question, but no single game rewrites the model. Any adjustment has to repeat across comparable frozen reads and survive a prospective test first.

Technical receipt

Fact pack: 2ccbe0ea6d6d12572e429ea8db8b00f0044ee43822ce1fe49073196293e6ccfb

Decision receipts: mlb-current-decision:9aecef00d31c394a6f79aeeb08b4b4c4, mlb-added-prop-b4d6315601777c4ae7df056b, mlb-added-prop-1d840c98e0b0fe8b62ebd696

Settlement receipts: mlb_live_settlement_bdd59b9045a1eadb97453642, c95ce91ab6d70042bcb73876c06dd85b40d2e2c6fb77a5b0fb888106ebc931a3, dfa26bdb876956bd4d02adf1457ee3247c90b69d07c1dda4446a06ca505008cc