Settled model recap · 2026-08-23

MLB Pitcher Prop Picks Recap for August 23, 2026: 1-1, +0.15 units

Review 2 pitcher-prop Picks from August 23, 2026 with the exact saved sportsbook prices, model probabilities, lineup or player values, final results, and plain-English postgame review.

Published after the saved Picks settled. The original prices and inputs stay attached.

Record1-1-0

Net units+0.15u

Game Picks0

Player Props2

One-minute recap

The card finished 1-1 for +0.15 units. The result was mixed, so the individual price and projection reads matter more than the headline record.

Saved Picks and reviews

Open any Pick for the why

MLB Player Props

2 pitcher-prop Picks, covering strikeouts, pitching outs and reviewed from the saved workload, opponent, and price snapshots.

Pitcher prop

Tomoyuki Sugano Over 2.5 strikeouts

CLE at COL · 2 strikeouts · over 2.5

FanDuel -104lossSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Lost: Tomoyuki Sugano Over 2.5 Ks

Tomoyuki Sugano finished with 2 strikeouts, leaving the saved over 2.5 on the wrong side of the line for a 1.00-unit loss.

At FanDuel -104, the model gave the over 72.2% against a 51.0% break-even mark, a +21.3-point gap. The saved projection was 4.0 strikeouts across 22.8 batters faced. The pitcher graded 42.1/100 and the opponent strikeout matchup graded 24.8; the confirmed lineup carried a 19.1% strikeout rate.

The actual result finished 2.0 strikeouts below the point projection. The projection supported the ticket, but the actual result crossed to the other side of the sportsbook line. We will compare the same workload, opponent, line, and price profile before changing production weights.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability72.2%

Price break-even51.0%

Calculated difference+21.3 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Tomoyuki Sugano vs. CLE

Projected Ks: 4.0
Actual Ks: 2

Pitcher value42.1

Opponent K matchup24.8

Lineup K rate19.1%

Lineup coverage100%

Projected batters faced22.8

Evidence quality90%

Pitcher and opponent values use the frozen 0–100 rolling scale. Projection standard deviation: 2.12 Ks. Robustness: 76%.

Pitcher prop

Shane Baz Under 17.5 pitching outs

TB at BAL · 17 outs · under 17.5

Bovada +115winSee the review ↓

Postgame review

Won: Shane Baz Under 17.5 pitching outs

Shane Baz finished with 17 outs, cashing the saved under 17.5 at Bovada +115 for +1.15 units.

The model priced the under at 57.7% versus a 46.5% break-even mark. The actual finished 0.2 outs above the saved 16.8 projection. The workload estimate was 24.8 opportunities, with pitcher rate 69.0% and opponent rate 66.2%.

Saved pregame inputs

Model probability57.7%

Price break-even46.5%

Calculated difference+11.2 pts

Frozen pitcher-prop inputs

Shane Baz vs. TB

Projected outs: 16.8
Actual outs: 17

Projected opportunities24.8

Pitcher rate69.0%

Opponent rate66.2%

Stability93%

Evidence quality95%

Uncertaintystandard

What comes next

What we take forward

Each result can raise a useful question, but no single game rewrites the model. Any adjustment has to repeat across comparable frozen reads and survive a prospective test first.

Technical receipt

Fact pack: 191b63d1437ae999b7e7ff561088699cf0b2a3f91610a9a1ed60ccce9b43e45e

Decision receipts: mlb-k-prop-8fdf32d4e1c817b5be633c60, mlb-added-prop-4d6118e1cd8af2a5e4725f25

Settlement receipts: 4f82da391277fa35192197146d732d4dd819c4dc9b6c1b006e2eebdc536f3934, 7e202ec965f5a73c0c23c0334c1a310d67e5f1975218c6cd06e7b20ee1643fd4