Nori's Weekly Fades, Week 8: Everybody Loves the Patriots. I'll Take the Seven.

TL;DR

Miami Dolphins +7 at -112 on BetMGM, 0.5u. Kickoff Sunday, 3:25 PM CT.

75% of spread bets and 72% of the money are on New England -7, and the number still came down. A.J. Brown missed Thursday practice with a knee issue, and the forecast in Miami is wind and rain. One fade this week. I looked at four others and passed. This is my own analyst pick, not an ATSKillers model Pick.

The fade

New England is the most-bet favorite on the board this week. As of Friday morning, fadethepublicanalytics.com had 75% of spread tickets and 72% of the money on Patriots -7, and 96% of moneyline tickets. Everybody's looking at a 4-3 team against a 1-5 team and figuring it's easy.

The line isn't acting easy. FanDuel and BetRivers opened Miami +8.5. DraftKings and BetMGM opened +7.5. With three-quarters of the tickets on New England, most books now sit at 7, and Hard Rock, ESPN Bet and Fanatics are already down to 6.5. When the crowd's all on one side and the number moves the other way, somebody bigger is on the other side.

That alone isn't a reason to bet. Splits tell me where the crowd is, not who wins. Here's the actual reason.

Brown's knee and three healthy receivers

A.J. Brown was limited Wednesday and then didn't practice Thursday because of a knee problem on top of the ankle he was already managing. Ian Rapoport called his status up in the air. Behind him it gets thin: Romeo Doubs and Mack Hollins are on IR, and ESPN notes that DeMario Douglas, Kyle Williams and Efton Chism are the only other healthy wideouts on the 53-man roster. RB TreVeyon Henderson also missed Thursday with an illness, and two starting linemen, C Ben Brown and RT Morgan Moses, were limited both days.

Friday's report comes out this afternoon. I'm taking the number before it does, because if Brown is ruled out I don't expect 7 to stay at 7.

The weather

The forecast for Hard Rock Stadium at kickoff: about 82 degrees, wind around 17 mph with gusts of 21 to 24, and a 78% chance of rain (open-meteo). New England's offense runs through Drake Maye throwing it, 7.6 net yards per pass attempt. They also have 14 giveaways in 7 games: 8 interceptions and 6 lost fumbles. A wet ball and a crosswind don't help a road favorite that has to win by more than a touchdown.

The numbers

Sharp books have Miami +7 at about 51.4% after taking out the juice (Pinnacle and LowVig, both -112 on Miami). I bump that to 52.8% for the Brown situation and the wind, which makes my fair price about -112. That's exactly the price I got, so by my own math this is about break-even, and against the plain market price it's a slight minus. I'm not going to dress that up. This is a read on information the market is still catching up on, and books shaving the 7 down to 6.5 this morning says it's catching up toward Miami. Half a unit, no more.

Key number note: 7 is the second most common NFL margin, so a push happens about 5% of the time. I want the 7. I will not take +6.5. Worst price I'd play is +7 -112.

The model lens

There's no ATSKillers sim for this game yet, so there's no sim number on this card. My own team projection has New England by only 2.8, but that model hasn't beaten closing lines in my backtest, so it gets zero weight on the side. I mention it so you know where it sits, not because it's why I'm here.

What would make me wrong

Brown gets cleared Friday and plays a full game. New England's extra rest, 10 days against Miami's 7, shows up early. Malik Willis turns it over in the rain. Or the Patriots win by exactly 7 and we push. Miami is 1-5 and has given up 26.2 points a game. I know who I'm backing.

The ones I passed

Raiders-Jets: 81% of bets on Las Vegas +1.5, but the line already moved from pick'em to Jets -1.5, so the value went with it. Chargers-Rams: 71% of tickets on the Rams -6.5, but the Chargers price at +6.5 is about break-even. Titans-Bengals: 67% of bets on Cincinnati -12.5, but the line moved toward Cincinnati with the sharp money too, so fading would mean fading both. Eagles-Commanders total: 84% on the over, but the total already dropped from 46.5 to 40.5. A pass is a decision too.

Sources

Public betting splits: fadethepublicanalytics.com, Friday Oct 30 morning, plus Yahoo Sports' Week 8 BetMGM report. Prices: The Odds API across US books and BallDontLie opening lines, captured 11:10 AM CT Friday Oct 30. Injuries: patriots.com and miamidolphins.com Week 8 practice reports, ESPN. Weather: open-meteo forecast. Team stats: BallDontLie. My projection: my own handicap model.

Market references & reading

• NE-MIA public betting splits (fadethepublicanalytics.com)
• A.J. Brown misses practice with knee issue (ESPN)
• Patriots Week 8 injury report (patriots.com)
• Dolphins Week 8 injury report (miamidolphins.com)
• The Odds API

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