Week 8 Noon Card: Eight Games, a Side or Total and a Prop Each

TL;DR

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills: Buffalo Bills -3 at -112 on LowVig, 0.5u. Zay Flowers over 6.5 receptions at +120 on FanDuel, 0.5u. Total risk 1.0u.

Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati Bengals -13.5 at -105 on BetMGM, 0.5u. Chase Brown over 3.5 receptions at -108 on FanDuel, 1.0u. Total risk 1.5u.

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys: Over 54.5 at -108 on BetMGM, 0.5u. CeeDee Lamb over 82.5 receiving yards at -111 on BetMGM, 1.0u. Total risk 1.5u.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: Minnesota Vikings +3.5 at -110 on MyBookie, 0.5u. Jared Goff under 258.5 passing yards at -114 on BetRivers, 0.5u. Total risk 1.0u.

Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets: Las Vegas Raiders +1.5 at -105 on FanDuel, 0.5u. Kirk Cousins over 230.5 passing yards at -115 on BetOnline, 0.75u. Total risk 1.25u.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers: Cleveland Browns +3.5 at +100 on MyBookie, 0.5u. Jaylen Warren over 64.5 rushing yards at -113 on FanDuel, 1.0u. Total risk 1.5u.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Under 43 at -105 on Hard Rock Bet, 0.5u. Bucky Irving over 69.5 rushing yards at -110 on DraftKings, 0.75u. Total risk 1.25u.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars: Under 46.5 at -110 on BetAnything, 0.5u. Trevor Lawrence under 237.5 passing yards at -112 on DraftKings, 0.75u. Total risk 1.25u.

Total risk 10.25u across sixteen picks. These are my own analyst picks, not ATSKillers model Picks.

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills: Buffalo Bills -3 and Zay Flowers over 6.5 receptions

Buffalo's had two weeks off and Moore's back. Laying the 3.

Buffalo comes off a 14-day rest vs Baltimore's 7, Ed Oliver is back, DJ Moore is expected to play (Schefter), and Baltimore is missing RG Vega Ioane and S Jaylinn Hawkins. Lamar's back from a high-ankle sprain after three missed games. The 3.5 to 3 move was all Lamar; Moore's return came after.

The math: I make it 54.5% (market no-vig 51.7% BUF cover at -3 (toolkit), plus about 3pp for rest, Oliver, Moore and the BAL OL/safety losses). Fair price -120. I'm taking -112 at LowVig, which is a 3.2% edge. Worst I'd take is -114; worse than that, I pass. Stake 0.5u.

My team model doesn't beat closing lines on sides and totals, so it gets no say here. This one is an information call.

My projection: 6.9 catches on average, median 7, on a 31.5% target share in his four full games. He's Baltimore's only real target hog, and if Buffalo builds a lead, Lamar is throwing.

Fair -106. I'm taking +120 at FanDuel, a 13.1% edge. Worst I'd take is +105. Stake 0.5u.

Spencer Brown is inactive, so Buffalo's right tackle spot is the soft spot; if Baltimore's rush wins there, or Lamar looks fully mobile from snap one, this goes sideways.

Lamar spreads it to Andrews and Bateman in his first game back, or Baltimore leads and hands it to Henry 25 times. Sized small because the QB change makes the projection noisier.

Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati Bengals -13.5 and Chase Brown over 3.5 receptions

Ridley got scratched. Tennessee's down its top three skill guys. Laying the 13.5.

Calvin Ridley was expected to play (Rapoport) and he's inactive. That stacks on Carnell Tate and Tyjae Spears, also inactive, and Tennessee already traded Jeffery Simmons. The spread sat at 13.5 before and after the scratch. My prep read was the over, built partly on Ridley playing; with him out, I moved to the side. A 14-point win covers.

The math: I make it 52.5% (market no-vig 50.5% CIN cover at -13.5 (exchange midpoint, 10:50 AM CT), plus about 2pp for the Ridley scratch the number hasn't moved on). Fair price -111. I'm taking -105 at BetMGM, which is a 2.5% edge. Worst I'd take is -106; worse than that, I pass. Stake 0.5u.

My team model doesn't beat closing lines on sides and totals, so it gets no say here. This one is an information call.

My projection: 4.5 catches on average, median 4, and the TE injuries push a few more short targets his way. Cincinnati throws on 66.8% of neutral downs. My raw number was 60.9%. I shaved it to 57% for the blowout risk.

Fair -133. I'm taking -108 at FanDuel, a 9.8% edge. Worst I'd take is -118. Stake 1.0u.

Tennessee's backups score a garbage-time touchdown to get inside the number, or Cincinnati pulls Burrow early with a 17-point lead. Half a unit.

Cincinnati's up 20 at the half and Brown gets carries or rides the bench. Capped at 1u, and the blowout that cashes the side is the risk here.

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys: Over 54.5 and CeeDee Lamb over 82.5 receiving yards

Two short-handed defenses under a roof. Over, and CeeDee eats.

Dome game, Pickens expected to play (Schefter), and both defenses are missing bodies: Arizona's without DT Walter Nolen, Dallas is without LB Dee Winters. Brissett threw 48 times last week and Arizona's offensive line is missing Jon Gaines. My own numbers had this at 56.6 raw (context, not the reason).

The math: I make it 53.0% (market no-vig Over 50.0% (toolkit), plus about 3pp for the dome, Pickens playing and the two defensive absences). Fair price -113. I'm taking -108 at BetMGM, which is a 2.1% edge. Worst I'd take is -108; worse than that, I pass. Stake 0.5u.

My team model doesn't beat closing lines on sides and totals, so it gets no say here. This one is an information call.

My projection: mean 102.8, median 96.6 receiving yards. Turpin is out, Pickens is playing on a sore hamstring, and Lamb has 651 yards in seven games. My raw number was 60.3%. I shaved it to 58% because Pickens is active.

Fair -138. I'm taking -111 at BetMGM, a 10.3% edge. Worst I'd take is -123. Stake 1.0u.

Dallas jumps out and runs it 38 times like it did in Philly, the clock melts, and Arizona's offense stalls behind a patched line.

Pickens plays a full game and they split it, or Dallas leads big and runs. Cut to 1u because it rides with the over.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: Minnesota Vikings +3.5 and Jared Goff under 258.5 passing yards

Detroit -3.5 is plus money at half the board. I'll take the hook.

Sharp books have shaded Minnesota above 50% at +3.5 all weekend, and Detroit -3.5 is going for plus money at several books. Minnesota's injury report is basically clean (S Jay Ward questionable). Detroit is without S Kerby Joseph. In a 46 total, the half point over 3 is worth having.

The math: I make it 53.5% (market no-vig MIN cover about 52% at +3.5 (toolkit DET 48.1%), plus about 1.5pp for the injury gap). Fair price -115. I'm taking -110 at MyBookie, which is a 2.1% edge. Worst I'd take is -110; worse than that, I pass. Stake 0.5u.

My team model doesn't beat closing lines on sides and totals, so it gets no say here. This one is an information call.

My projection: mean 237.8, median 232.6 passing yards. The game total has come down from 48 to about 46 since the open. My raw number was 62.8%. I shaved it hard to 56% because Goff has cleared 258.5 in five of six games, and I'm not pretending that isn't there.

Fair -127. I'm taking -114 at BetRivers, a 5.1% edge. Worst I'd take is -114. Stake 0.5u.

Detroit runs Gibbs 25 times and wins by a touchdown, or the line drops to 3 (then I pass, +3 is a different bet).

Detroit falls behind and Goff throws 40 times. Small stake: it's a big gap from his logs, and it rides with Minnesota +3.5.

Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets: Las Vegas Raiders +1.5 and Kirk Cousins over 230.5 passing yards

No Breece, no edge rushers. The Jets are still laying points.

The Jets are without edge rushers Joseph Ossai and T'Vondre Sweat, David Bailey is doubtful, OT Max Mitchell is out, and now Breece Hall isn't expected to play (Rapoport). The line still says Jets -1.5.

The math: I make it 53.5% (market no-vig LV cover about 49.4% (toolkit NYJ 50.6%), plus about 4pp for Hall out on top of the pass-rush losses). Fair price -115. I'm taking -105 at FanDuel, which is a 4.5% edge. Worst I'd take is -110; worse than that, I pass. Stake 0.5u.

My team model doesn't beat closing lines on sides and totals, so it gets no say here. This one is an information call.

My projection: mean 259.1, median 253.6. He's cleared 230.5 in six of seven games and faces a Jets front missing three pass rushers. The market dropped this from 239.5 Saturday to 230.5 and I can't find news for it, so I shaved my number from 62.2% to 57% and cut the stake.

Fair -133. I'm taking -115 at BetOnline, a 6.6% edge. Worst I'd take is -118. Stake 0.75u.

The Jets' backup backs run it fine and the Jets' QB has a clean day, or JPJ sits at center for Vegas.

Vegas leads and runs Jeanty, or whoever pushed this line down knows something I don't. Rides with LV +1.5, sized as one position.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers: Cleveland Browns +3.5 and Jaylen Warren over 64.5 rushing yards

Saturday I wanted Pittsburgh because of the RT. The RT plays. Flipping.

My whole Saturday case for Pittsburgh was Dawand Jones on T.J. Watt. Tytus Howard cleared concussion protocol with no designation and starts at right tackle (Browns Wire, CBS), so that case is gone. Pittsburgh is still missing CBs Brandin Echols and Doneiko Slaughter. In a 39 total, three and a half points is a lot of cushion.

The math: I make it 53.0% (market no-vig CLE cover 50.4% (toolkit PIT 49.6%), plus about 2.5pp for Howard playing and PIT's two CBs out in a 39 total). Fair price -113. I'm taking +100 at MyBookie, which is a 6.0% edge. Worst I'd take is -108; worse than that, I pass. Stake 0.5u.

My team model doesn't beat closing lines on sides and totals, so it gets no say here. This one is an information call.

My projection: mean 75.6, median 70.8 rushing yards. He's at 80 a game and Dowdle is the only real competition. My raw number was 57.7%. I shaved it to 56%.

Fair -127. I'm taking -113 at FanDuel, a 5.6% edge. Worst I'd take is -114. Stake 1.0u.

Watt wrecks it anyway, Watson turns it over in a low-scoring game, and Pittsburgh wins by a touchdown.

Dowdle gets the hot hand, or Pittsburgh trails and throws. This cuts against my Cleveland side, which is fine. It's a hedge on game flow, not a contradiction: Pittsburgh can run well and still lose by a field goal.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Under 43 and Bucky Irving over 69.5 rushing yards

No Egbuka, rain on the radar. Under, and Bucky gets fed.

Tampa's without Emeka Egbuka, Atlanta's without RB Brian Robinson and OT Cameron Williams, and open-meteo now has a 37% chance of rain with gusts near 20 mph. Both offenses want to run it. The wind's down from Saturday's 26 mph gusts, so the line came down to 43 and my number came down with it.

The math: I make it 52.0% (market no-vig Under 50.0% at 43 (toolkit), plus about 2pp for Egbuka out, both run-first scripts and the rain risk). Fair price -108. I'm taking -105 at Hard Rock Bet, which is a 1.5% edge. Worst I'd take is -106; worse than that, I pass. Stake 0.5u.

My team model doesn't beat closing lines on sides and totals, so it gets no say here. This one is an information call.

My projection: mean 83.4, median 78.4. With Egbuka out and rain in the forecast, Tampa runs. My raw number was 60.9%. I shaved it to 57% because Kenneth Gainwell is expected to play (Fowler) and will take some carries.

Fair -133. I'm taking -110 at DraftKings, a 8.8% edge. Worst I'd take is -118. Stake 0.75u.

Penix and Mayfield trade deep shots, or a defensive score or a short field gifts seven.

Gainwell takes 40% of the work or Tampa trails early. 0.75u, and it rides with the under.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars: Under 46.5 and Trevor Lawrence under 237.5 passing yards

Jacksonville's laying 10. Favorites like that sit on the ball.

Indy sold Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner at the deadline, and Jacksonville is laying 10. Double-digit home favorites run it once they get up, and Indy's offense lost its best lineman. Indy is also missing WR Anthony Gould and CB Justin Walley. Saturday I liked IND +10, but Jakobi Meyers is playing (Rapoport) and the +10 price isn't there. The total is the better way to play it.

The math: I make it 53.0% (market no-vig Under 50.2% (toolkit), plus about 3pp for the favorite's run script and Indy's offensive-line loss). Fair price -113. I'm taking -110 at BetAnything, which is a 1.2% edge. Worst I'd take is -110; worse than that, I pass. Stake 0.5u.

My team model doesn't beat closing lines on sides and totals, so it gets no say here. This one is an information call.

My projection: mean 218.6, median 214 passing yards. Jacksonville is a 10-point favorite and should be running it in the second half. My raw number was 62%. I shaved it to 57% because Meyers is active.

Fair -133. I'm taking -112 at DraftKings, a 7.9% edge. Worst I'd take is -118. Stake 0.75u.

Jacksonville's passing game goes off with Meyers back, or Indy chases with 45 dropbacks and garbage-time touchdowns.

Indy keeps it close and Jacksonville throws 38 times. Rides with the under, sized as one position.

Sources

Injury designations and inactives: NFL.com's Week 8 report and Sunday updates, theScore's inactives list, and the team and beat links below. Prices: The Odds API across US books, re-captured about 10:50 AM CT Sunday. Game logs and projections: my own model built on nflverse and BallDontLie data. Weather: open-meteo.

Market references & reading

• NFL.com Week 8 injury report
• NFL.com Sunday Week 8 injuries to monitor
• Ravens Wire: DJ Moore status
• Bills Week 8 injury report
• The Odds API
• theScore Week 8 inactives
• Yahoo: Pickens expected to play
• Browns Wire: Howard clears protocol
• CBS Sports: Howard clears protocol
• Open-Meteo forecast

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