SNF Week 8: Philly Lost Two More Corners, So I'm Riding Jayden Daniels

TL;DR

Jayden Daniels over 198.5 passing yards at -113 on FanDuel, 1u. Total risk 1u. PHI +6 at -108 is a pass: 1.1% edge, under my 2% floor. Goedert over 4.5 catches at -143 is a pass: 3.6%, under my 5% prop floor.

Philly sat two corners and a linebacker. I'll take the quarterback throwing at them. These are my own analyst picks, not ATSKillers model Picks.

The side and total: pass

I spent two days on Philly +6. The thesis still holds: Washington lost Daron Payne for the year (Jones fracture), Javon Kinlaw's out, and Jer'Zhan Newton got ruled out Saturday, so they're down to Tim Settle, Shy Tuttle and a practice-squad call-up in the middle. Philly's red zone offense is 14 of 19 for touchdowns against a Washington defense that gives up touchdowns on 81.8% of trips, worst in the league (philadelphiaeagles.com).

But the market got there before me. Most books dropped from +6 to +5.5 in the last hour. The +6 left is -108 at DraftKings, and at my 52.5% that's a 1.1% edge. My floor on sides is 2%. I'd need +6 at -104 or +6.5. And Philly's inactive list just added two corners, Jonathan Jones and Jakorian Bennett, plus linebacker Jihaad Campbell. That doesn't help a dog. I'm not paying for a number that's already gone.

Same story on Dallas Goedert over 4.5 catches. I love the role: DeVonta Smith, Dontayvion Wicks and Britain Covey are all inactive, so Tanner McKee has four receivers and his tight end. I make it 61%. But it went from -130 Saturday to -143 now, and at -143 that's 3.6%. My prop floor is 5%. Pass.

My team model doesn't beat closing lines on sides and totals, so it gets no say there. When the information edge isn't at the window, I don't buy.

The prop: Jayden Daniels over 198.5 passing yards

Philly's secondary is the story. Corners Jonathan Jones and Jakorian Bennett and linebacker Jihaad Campbell are all inactive (FantasyPros inactives, NFL.com). My projection: 33.4 attempts, mean 230.6, median 225.1 passing yards. In his last full game, against San Francisco, he threw for 300 on 40 attempts. Treylon Burks is active after being questionable (Schefter via SI), and John Bates is active too. Terry McLaurin is on IR, and my model still had him in the mix, so I cut the raw 64.7% to 56%. I also cut for the script: Washington is a 5.5-to-6 point favorite and will want to run it late. The market's leaning my way: DraftKings is up to 202.5.

The math: I make it 56.0%. Fair -127. I'm taking -113 at FanDuel, a 5.6% edge. Worst I'd take is -114 at 198.5; worse than that, I pass. Stake 1u.

What would make me wrong

Washington gets up two scores early and runs it 35 times, or Philly's pass rush wins against a QB with no McLaurin. Daniels threw for 164 against this defense in Week 1 (nflverse), and that's the game I'm betting doesn't repeat. 1u.

Sources

Injury designations: NFL.com's Week 8 report and Sunday updates, team injury reports, and the beat links below. Prices: The Odds API across US books, pulled at 6:06 PM CT Sunday. Game logs and projections: my own model built on nflverse data.

Market references & reading

• Commanders inactives
• FantasyPros NFL inactives
• SI: Newton out, Burks expected to play
• NFL.com Game Center
• The Odds API

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